Weekly round-up: Global scrap markets show cooling trends as ceasefire caps further upside sentiment

• Japan: Strong domestic support widened gap with export demand
  
  
• Turkiye: Mills resisted imports amid weak rebar demand
  
  

Global ferrous scrap markets were cool in the week ended 11 April, with firm trends in Turkiye, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, while India remained weak. Ceasefire developments eased bullish sentiment, capping further price rises, while UAE stayed subdued amid weak demand and logistics disruptions.

Global steel scrap generation is projected to reach around 873 mnt by 2050, up 36% from 2020 despite a slight downward revision. Growth will be led by emerging markets, while China and developed economies see slower trends. Improving recycling efficiency will support supply, with over 85% consumed by the steel sector, mainly via the EAF route.

Turkiye: Deep-sea scrap market remained stable early in the week, with HMS 80:20 at $402-405/t CFR, supported by limited billet and slab availability, keeping mills reliant on scrap. Rising energy costs amid Middle East tensions added uncertainty, while procurement needs supported prices despite weak downstream demand.

Towards the end of the week, sentiment softened as mills stepped back after securing 35-40 cargoes. EU-origin indications fell to around $395/t CFR, with mills aiming below $400/t amid weak rebar demand and easing freight. Domestic scrap at $360-375/t strengthened bargaining, leading to limited activity and no major deals.

India: Imported scrap market remained weak through the week, with firm seller offers clashing against cautious buyer sentiment. HMS offers largely stayed at $380-390/t CFR, while workable buyer levels were lower at $370-375/t. Shredded offers increased to $410-420/t, but bids remained near $390-400/t, widening the spread and limiting deal activity amid weak finished steel demand and poor margins.

Towards the end of the week, prices showed signs of stabilisation, with HMS deals reported around $370-385/t CFR, while shredded remained largely unworkable above $400/t. Mills preferred domestic scrap at $410-415/t delivered, while suppliers diverted cargoes to stronger markets like Turkiye and Bangladesh. Additionally, ceasefire-related developments eased bullish sentiment, halting further price increases.

In the last 7 days, around 4,500-5,000 t of imported scrap cargoes were reported into India, including ~4,100-4,200 t of HMS (from West Africa, South Africa, Brazil, and CI mix cargoes) and the remaining volumes comprising LMS bundle and other mixed grades.

Pakistan: Imported scrap market showed firm yet pressured sentiment during the week, supported by supply shortages following disruptions in UAE exports, shifting buying interest toward the UK, Europe, and Africa and keeping offers at $430-435/t CFR Qasim while buyers remained at $420-425/t. Despite firm pricing, demand stayed constrained due to weak finished steel sales and rising fuel costs, weighing on margins.

As the week progressed, negotiations narrowed with bids at $423/t and offers near $430/t, with limited deals, including a UK-origin shredded cargo at $425/t CFR Qasim, while overall sentiment remained firm but capped by weak downstream demand.

Bangladesh: Imported scrap market remained firm during the week, supported by steady buying interest and limited supply, with Australian HMS 80:20 offers at $385-390/t CFR, HMS 1 at $395-400/t, and shredded at $410-420/t, with deals near $412/t. Bulk activity included a 10,000 t Singapore cargo booked at $400/t for HMS 80:20 and $420/t for PNS, highlighting continued demand despite elevated prices.

Towards the latter half of the week, the market showed signs of stabilisation, with HMS 80:20 around $400/t CFR and shredded at $430-435/t. However, a widening bid-offer gap emerged, with buyers resisting above $410-415/t, forcing some price corrections.

Japan: Japan's April Kanto Tetsugen tender rose sharply to JPY 54,329/t ($342/t) FAS (~JPY 55,300/t FOB), exceeding expectations and highlighting strong domestic support while widening the gap with overseas workable levels. H2 export prices increased by JPY 800/t to around JPY 52,000/t, while Tokyo Steel raised purchase prices by JPY 1,500/t to about JPY 52,500/t, aligning with firm domestic trends despite constrained export demand.

UAE: Domestic scrap prices edged lower w-o-w, with HMS processed near AED 1,030/t and shredded at AED 1,080-1,100/t amid weak buying. Billet prices held firm at $550-560/t, while Strait of Hormuz disruptions delayed cargoes to delay cargoes and constrained supply.