Vale's nickel output rises in Q1CY26; strong upstream performance supports supply growth

• Vale records highest Q1 nickel output since CY'20
  
  
• Sales lag output amid inventory build-up
  
  

SteelDaily: Vale, the world's largest producer of nickel, reported a 12.3% y-o-y increase in production to 49,300 t in Q1CY'26, marking its highest first-quarter output since 2020. The growth was driven by stable operations and improved performance across key mining and refining assets, reinforcing the ongoing expansion in global nickel supply.

Operational performance across key assets

Production gains were supported by strong output from Voisey's Bay, which recorded a quarterly high of 10,500 t, and Onca Puma, which achieved its best-ever Q1 performance at 8,900 t following the ramp-up of its No. 2 furnace. Sudbury operations also improved marginally despite maintenance disruptions, while output at Thompson declined due to weather-related pipeline constraints.

Sales and inventory dynamics

Nickel sales rose 15.2% y-o-y to 44,800 t but remained below production levels, as the company strategically built inventories to meet anticipated demand during scheduled refinery maintenance in Q2.

Market implications

The continued ramp-up in Vale's nickel operations highlights stable upstream supply conditions, adding incremental volumes to the global market at a time when Indonesian output is also expanding, reinforcing broader supply-side pressure.

Outlook

Nickel supply is expected to remain robust in the near term, supported by operational stability and capacity expansions. However, planned maintenance across key facilities may lead to temporary fluctuations in output, keeping prices range-bound despite underlying cost support.

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