LME copper prices rally w-o-w on easing geopolitical tensions, improving sentiment

• LME copper surges past $13,000/t, driven by strong demand
  
  
• China expands copper footprint with 150,000 t/year facility
  
  

Copper prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) rose by about $325/t to $13,210/t on 17 April (as recorded at 11:40 IST) from $12,885/t on 13 April, reflecting sustained bullish momentum supported by improving global sentiment and stronger demand cues.

Prices witnessed a steady rally through the week, driven by easing geopolitical tensions and growing expectations of a potential extension in the US-Iran ceasefire, alongside tightening concentrate supply, with exports from Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of Congo totalling 2.27 mnt in 2025 but expected to decline in 2026 due to export restrictions.

Additional support came from stronger spot demand in March amid shipment delays from Peru and increased buying by Chinese smelters, which advanced cargoes under long-term contracts, further strengthening the bullish trend.

The upside was further supported by reports of robust buying interest from China, with higher imports of copper ore and concentrate (+6.6% y-o-y in March) and increased restocking activity by fabricators. Additionally, a softer US dollar and improved risk appetite encouraged speculative participation, pushing prices closer to previous record highs.

China update

Chinese copper product manufacturer Zhejiang Hailiang has announced plans to set up a large-scale copper processing facility in Saudi Arabia with an investment of $566 million. The proposed plant will have a total capacity of 150,000 t/yr, including copper pipes, bars, recycled copper, and foil, reflecting a strategic push towards downstream integration and diversification across both primary and secondary segments.

The project will be developed as a joint venture with Rawas, where Hailiang will hold a 51% stake, subject to regulatory approvals. The expansion supports Chinas global growth strategy, leveraging cost and resource advantages, though execution depends on regional geopolitical stability.

India update

Indias brass honey scrap imports rose 11% y-o-y to 0.13 mnt in CY25, driven by steady demand from the Jamnagar cluster. Import prices tracked LME copper movements, strengthening from around $7,600/t to $9,000/t, while domestic prices increased more gradually from INR 600,000/t to around INR 700,000/t, reflecting stable consumption and inventory-led buying. Despite recent geopolitical disruptions impacting trade flows and price discovery in the import market, domestic prices remained relatively resilient due to consistent demand.

Outlook

Near-term copper outlook remains cautiously bullish, with JPMorgan Chase & Co. warning of supply tightness across metals, while Mercuria Energy Group and BMO Capital Markets expect prices to surpass previous highs, supported by stronger Chinese demand and trade flows.

Similarly, BigMint also expects prices to remain elevated amid improving sentiment and easing geopolitical tensions, though volatility may persist due to macro uncertainties and inventory overhang, which could limit sharper upside.