Indonesian thermal coal exports fall 25% w-o-w amid RKAB uncertainty

• Prices remain unchanged despite tight supply
  
  
• Miners not ready to offer material, deals sparse
  
  

Indonesian daily thermal coal exports plunged to 930,000 tonnes (t) over the past five days, down 25% w-o-w and a striking 29% below the 2025 average of 1.31 million tonnes (mnt) per day, according to shipping data.

The dramatic supply drop comes despite stable pricing and persistent demand from key buyers, including India and China. Spot FOB Kalimantan 4200 GAR held firm w-o-w at $60/t, while 3400 GAR and 3800 GAR grades remained unchanged at $36.35/t and $48.30/t, respectively.

RKAB uncertainty affects market activity

The primary driver appears to be ongoing uncertainty surrounding Indonesia's annual RKAB production quotas. While some producers have reportedly received their final allocations, the broader market remains in the dark about the nation's overall production ceiling and whether authorities will permit increases amid growing regional demand.

An Indonesia-based trader said, "We have received some inquiries for 3,800 kcal/kg GAR coal. However, even if we want to close the deals, we cannot, because none of the miners we work with are ready to offer material, as they have not received their RKAB figures yet."

The trader added that once production quotas are fully released, premiums could drop by $1-2/t-but until then, supply will remain constrained.

The impact on physical trading has been immediate. For 4200 GAR product, the highest bid was heard at $60/t FOB on a Supramax basis for H2 April loading, against an offer at $63/t. No trades were heard.

Prompt cargoes are commanding attention, with a bid for Kalimantan 5300 GAR heard at $88/t FOB for H1 April loading. Offers for 3400 GAR for H2 April loading were heard at $39.25-40.25/t on a Supramax basis.

Prices remain stable

Notably, prices remained stable despite collapsing volumes. Typically, a 25% weekly drop in exports would send buyers scrambling and prices soaring. That has not happened.

A Singapore-based trader suggested that high bunker rates has been the main issue, but with the US-Iran ceasefire, freight costs should ease. "Buyers who were previously hesitant due to shipping costs may now be more willing to import cargoes," the trader said.

However, even with any potential change in shipment availability, arrival prices of coal cargoes would likely remain stable until May, before the onset of Indian monsoons, which typically curbs buying activity.

Outlook

Market participants are expecting Indonesia's supply crunch to be temporary, with volumes likely to improve following the release of RKAB quotas in the coming weeks. Until then, buyers are holding back, and sellers cannot commit. As a result, the market remains in a standoff.