Indian HRC export activity subdued amid lack of deals to EU and Middle East
...
- HRC offers to EU stood at $705/t CFR; no bookings reported
- Shipping disruptions and freight volatility weigh on exports
Indian HRC export activity remained subdued during the week ended 21 April 2026, as re-escalating geopolitical tensions and persistent disruptions across key maritime routes continued to weigh on trade flows. Heightened security risks along critical corridors such as the Red Sea-Suez Canal and the Strait of Hormuz led to widespread vessel diversions, longer transit times, and a sharp increase in freight and war-risk insurance costs, significantly undermining export competitiveness across major destinations.
HRC exports to Europe: Indian HRC export offers to the EU rose by $5/t w-o-w to around $705/t CFR Antwerp compared with $700/t a week ago. However, no bookings were reported at these levels within the assessment window, reflecting cautious buyer sentiment.
Ongoing security risks across key maritime routes continue to disrupt global trade flows. Vessels are increasingly rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope instead of the Red Sea-Suez Canal corridor, extending transit times by 15-20 days. This has led to a significant rise in freight costs and war-risk insurance premiums, prompting market participants to adopt a wait-and-watch approach.
Sentiment is further dampened by cost implications related to the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), along with a lack of clarity regarding country-specific quotas under the EU's upcoming safeguard measures, set to take effect from 1 July 2026. Under the revised framework, tariff-free quotas will be limited to 18.3 million tonnes per year, with a 50% duty imposed on volumes exceeding these quotas across 30 steel product categories. The framework also includes a "melt and pour" requirement, aimed at enhancing traceability and transparency across the steel supply chain.
On the demand side, buyer inventories in Europe are reported to be sufficiently high, with both domestic and imported material booked earlier in anticipation of the upcoming regulatory changes.
HRC exports to Middle East: Indian HRC export offers to the Middle East remained absent w-o-w, as escalating geopolitical tensions and persistent security risks across key shipping corridors continued to disrupt trade flows.
The Strait of Hormuz has emerged as a critical flashpoint, with rising missile and drone threats, as well as attacks on merchant vessels, severely impacting shipping activity. This has resulted in a sharp increase in freight rates and war-risk insurance costs, effectively eroding export viability.
Shipping lines and insurers have adopted a cautious stance, with several carriers suspending operations in high-risk zones. Consequently, trade flows have been significantly disrupted, with freight uncertainty and limited near-term visibility weighing heavily on market sentiment.
A Middle East-based source noted that, "ongoing disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz have severely impacted cargo movements, particularly to and from the UAE, with no visible improvement so far. The route remains largely inaccessible, constraining both inbound and outbound shipments and bringing regional trade activity to a near standstill. Consequently, most export offers to the region have been suspended."
Meanwhile, SHFE futures, October 2026 HRC contract increased by RMB 88/t ($13/t) w-o-w to around RMB 3,367/t ($494/t) on 21 April from RMB 3,279/t ($481/t) on 14 April 2026, reflecting relatively firmer sentiment in the futures market.
Outlook
Indian HRC export activity is expected to remain subdued in the coming week. In the EU, rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope is extending transit times and increasing freight costs, while uncertainty around safeguard measures and CBAM continues to weigh on sentiment. In the Middle East, persistent disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz are likely to constrain trade flows. Overall, export momentum is expected to stay muted amid logistical challenges and limited policy clarity.
