India: Tier-1 steel mills reduce rebar prices for Jun'26 amid rising inventories, weak enquiries

• Cautious procurement sentiment prompts price cut
  
  
• Wide gap between IF & BF rebar pressures BF prices
  
  

India's blast furnace (BF) route rebar steel producers have reduced their rebar list prices for June 2026 deliveries. Current list prices of IS 1786 Fe 500/550D of size 12-32 mm rebars from the mill-to-distributor level are in the range of INR 55,250-57,700/t exy Mumbai, reflecting a downward price correction in the range INR 1,000-4,000/t ($10-$42/t) compared with the levels prevailing in early May 2026.

The price reduction has been driven by weak buying enquiries, limited order bookings by distributors, mounting inventory pressure across the supply chain, and a widening price gap of nearly INR 10,000/t between BF-route and induction furnace (IF)-route rebar during May 2026. Additionally, subdued market fundamentals, including slower construction activity due to the extreme heatwave across several parts of the country, have adversely impacted purchasing sentiment. These factors have compelled primary steelmakers to adopt a more competitive pricing strategy to stimulate demand and improve order inflows.

Market participants informed BigMint that rebar inventories at primary mills have increased around 35% m-o-m amid weak fresh bookings orders received by mills. Sources indicated that most previously secured project-linked orders have largely been executed, resulting in a thinner order book and lower backlog visibility for mills.

BigMint assessed trade-level (distributor-to-dealer) rebar prices at INR 55,000/t ($576/t) exy-Mumbai on 4 June 2026. Meanwhile, workable project prices were heard at INR 53,000-54,000/t on a landed basis, with mills offering competitive rates to secure fresh business amid limited buying interest and intensifying market competition. The correction was driven by delayed project execution and cautious procurement across key consumption centres.

Factors driving market

1. IF rebar prices hit 4-month low: IF-route rebar prices across India declined by INR 1,800-4,200/t m-o-m in May 2026 amid subdued market activity, weak end-user demand, and limited order bookings. Following the sharp correction during the month, rebar prices fell to a four-month low, with prevailing levels last seen in January 2026. Buyers remained reluctant to accept higher offer prices and largely continued with need-based procurement. Sellers, on the other hand, attempted to push prices upward amid expectations of slightly improved market movement; however, weak buying interest at elevated levels forced them to offer discounts to facilitate transactions. Market sentiment remained cautious, while mill inventory levels were reported at around 12-15 days.

As per BigMint's assessment, in Mumbai, trade level BF route rebar prices stood at INR 55,800/t exy, while IF rebar prices were at INR 46,000/t exw as on 30 May. The wide gap of INR 9,800/t between BF and IF rebar prices created pressure among tier-1 mills to reduce prices. Notably, IF rebar continues to dominate the Indian market, accounting for an estimated 65-70% share.

2. Raw material prices show mixed trends: Prices of major raw materials used in the BF route showed mixed trends m-o-m. BigMint's Odisha iron ore fines (Fe 62%) index was down by 9% m-o-m to INR 5,100/t ($53/t) ex-mines as on 30 May. Market participants stated that trading activity remained cautious after the Odisha Ming Corporation (OMC) auction, as buyers continued to assess the impact of lower auction bids on the broader market. BigMint's premium hard coking coal (PHCC) prices rose by 6% m-o-m to $268/t CNF Paradip.

Project updates

Mumbai recorded 12,315 property registrations in May 2026, up 7% y-o-y, marking the highest registrations for the month of May in 14 years, according to Knight Frank India. However, stamp duty collections stood at INR 1,051 crore during the month, marginally lower than the year-ago period.

Over the last 7-10 days, India's infrastructure and construction sector witnessed major project announcements and contract awards worth approximately INR 18,332.85 crore. Key beneficiaries included Godrej Properties, Ashoka Buildcon, The Indian Hume Pipe Company Limited, PNC Infratech, and HG Infra Engineering. The awards span highways, irrigation, airports, bridges, real estate, and highway operations projects, highlighting sustained investment activity and strong momentum in India's infrastructure development pipeline.

Outlook

Rebar prices are likely to remain under pressure and may witness a further decline due to elevated inventory levels and a cautious buying approach. Additionally, the onset of the monsoon is expected to slow construction activities in several regions, leading to weaker trading volumes.