India steel index rises w-o-w as West Asia conflict triggers restocking in domestic markets

• Mills hike HRC prices on strong restocking demand amid Iran conflict
  
  
• Primary TMT prices hiked but IF-rebar prices soften in key markets
  
  
• Steel prices to stay rangebound if Gulf cargo movements normalise
  
  

Morning Brief: BigMint's India steel composite index, which mirrors price movements in the domestic market, continued to rise w-o-w on higher raw material and fuel costs amid global geopolitical turmoil, as well as buoyant domestic demand and fast-paced inventory drawdown in regional markets.

The flagship index rose by 0.8% w-o-w, with the flats index recording a sharp surge of 1.9% w-o-w, while the longs index upended two weeks of successive gains to drop 0.1%. This reflects a wary sentiment in the domestic market, with elevated prices instilling caution among market participants and demand sagging at high prices.

Therefore, steel price movements in the domestic market, while generally reflecting a positive scenario, showed a mixed picture last week after weeks of sustained surge.

Highlights of price movements

Mills hike HRC, CRC prices: The leading primary steelmakers increased list prices of hot-rolled coils (HRCs) and cold-rolled coils (CRCs) by INR 1,000-1,500/t ($11-16/t) for mid-March sales. List prices of HRCs (2.5-8 mm, IS2062, Gr E250 Br) ranged within INR 55,250-57,000/t ($598-617/t) ex-Mumbai. CRCs (0.9 mm, IS513 CR1) were listed at INR 63,200-64,250/t ($684-695/t).

BigMint's benchmark assessment (bi-weekly) for HRC (IS2062, Gr E250, 2.5-8 mm/CTL) prices increased by INR 1,000/t ($11/t) w-o-w to INR 56,500/t ($612/t) on 17 March against INR 55,500/t ($601/t) in the same period last week.

Trade sentiment remains bullish, underpinned by geopolitical uncertainty and supply constraints which have volatility into global commodity markets, prompting traders and distributors to build inventories in apprehension of potential supply disruptions. This, coupled with tight availability, particularly in north India, resulted in a sharp w-o-w increase in prices.

Market chatter indicated that constrained availability of fuel and gas may disrupt mill operations, leading to reduced downstream production and encouraging mills to divert surplus HR material into the open market.

In comparison, CRC market sentiment remains tighter, as downstream production of CR and coated products is being impacted by limited LPG availability. If the current geopolitical situation continues for the next 10-15 days, the price gap between HR and CR is likely to widen further.

IF rebar prices soften in key markets: IF-route rebar prices witnessed a slight decline w-o-w across major Indian markets. Trading activity remained moderate, with buyers largely continuing need-based procurement and showing resistance at elevated price levels. However, manufacturers maintained higher offer levels, supported by underlying cost pressure, while offering competitive discounts to sustain sales momentum. Despite the recent softening, market dynamics are evolving rapidly amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and elevated raw material and energy costs.

On a w-o-w basis, rebar prices softened by INR 100-800/t across key regions. However, Chennai and Raipur witnessed a price uptick of INR 200/t, supported by relatively better demand.

BF rebar list prices increase: However, the primary steelmakers increased rebar prices by INR 500-1,000/t ($5-11/t) last week, sources informed BigMint. Post-revision, list prices stood at INR 59,500-60,500/t ($636-646/t) on landed basis. Mills reported healthy order bookings and continued to focus on fulfilling pending project-linked orders.

Trade demand, however, slowed down as buyers showed limited interest due to the surge in prices. Also, buyers were cautious due to higher BF-IF price gap, with the spread in Mumbai widening to around INR 8,500-9,000/t ($91-96/t). IF rebar continues to dominate the Indian market, accounting for an estimated 65-70% share.

In addition, limited availability of some sizes is still prevailing in the market which is lending support to prices.

Outlook

Geopolitical conflict in the Persian Gulf and consequent disruptions to maritime trade have triggered restocking in steel markets in apprehension of a prolonged standoff in the region. Moreover, surging crude and gas prices have propelled the coal market too. These factors are behind mills' decisions to raise HRC and CRC prices for the rest of the month.

Although domestic rebar prices have witnessed a sustained rally on seasonal project segment demand, buyers have turned wary due to the continuous rise in prices and the widening gap with secondary steel prices. Steel prices are expected to remain rangebound in March, provided there are no major disruptions and cargo movements in the Gulf normalise, with Iran granting safe passage to vessels from friendly countries following a 48-hour US ultimatum.