Global iron ore exports rise modestly in CY'25 as Brazil drives growth

• India's export drop tightens Asian supply
  
  
• China's imports remain steady despite weak steel demand
  
  
• Global supplies to increase post Simandou ramp up
  
  

Morning Brief: Global iron ore export volumes are projected to increase 2.6% year-on-year to 1,760 million tonnes in CY'25, reflecting incremental supply growth rather than a broad-based expansion across producing regions. The overall increase remains narrowly distributed, with gains concentrated among a few major exporters while several others see structural declines.

Country-wise trend

Australia remains the largest exporter, with shipments rising 2.4% y-o-y to 924 million tonnes. Growth continues to be measured, driven primarily by operational efficiencies rather than new capacity additions.

Brazil is the largest contributor to incremental supply, with exports increasing 7.6% y-o-y to 419.8 million tonnes. Higher output from Vale, supported by improved system reliability and sustained ramp-ups, is underpinning this growth. The company's production reached around 336 million tonnes in CY'25, its highest level since 2018, and is expected to remain elevated, reinforcing Brazil's role in shaping marginal seaborne supply.

Among other exporters, South Africa and Canada recorded moderate growth, while smaller producers such as Russia and Sierra Leone posted sharp percentage increases from a low base. Anglo American's recovery at Minas-Rio following earlier maintenance disruptions also supported improved output levels, though its impact on overall seaborne supply remains limited.

However, these gains are offset by declines in several key regions. India's exports are projected to fall sharply by nearly 30% y-o-y, while shipments from Ukraine, China and Peru are also expected to contract. The drop in Indian exports is particularly significant, reducing the availability of a key swing supplier in Asia and tightening regional supply flexibility.

Supply structure remains narrow

Despite the increase in overall volumes, the global export landscape remains structurally concentrated. Brazil is driving a large share of incremental growth, while Australia continues to maintain stable output. Secondary producers are contributing additional tonnes, but remain non-systemic in scale and are unable to offset disruptions from major exporters.

This concentration reinforces the market's dependence on a limited number of supply sources, leaving trade flows sensitive to operational or weather-related disruptions in key producing regions.

Demand trends and trade flows

On the demand side, China continues to anchor seaborne trade despite weak domestic steel sector fundamentals. Iron ore imports rose around 1.8% y-o-y in CY25 to approximately 1.26 billion tonnes, supported by consistent monthly arrivals and structural reliance on imported material.

However, elevated port inventories and cautious procurement strategies are limiting aggressive buying activity. Mills have prioritised inventory discipline amid weak margins, keeping demand stable in volume terms but not sufficiently strong to support sustained price upside.

At the same time, the shift in supply composition is influencing trade flows at the margin. Stronger growth from Brazil is increasing the share of long-haul shipments, while the decline in Indian exports is reducing short-haul availability within Asia. This is gradually altering sourcing patterns, though not yet fundamentally changing the structure of trade. The shift towards higher Brazilian exports is also increasing shipping demand at the margin, supporting freight rates and marginally raising delivered costs for Asian buyers.

Outlook

Looking ahead, global iron ore output is expected to expand further, supported by project ramp-ups and capacity additions across key regions. New supply from Guinea, particularly the Simandou project, along with expansions in Australia and Brazil, is expected to contribute to higher volumes from 2026 onwards.

Additional output from India, Iran and Liberia is also likely to support medium-term growth, although much of this supply remains incremental or in early ramp-up stages and is unlikely to materially diversify exports in the near term.

In the near term, the export market is expected to remain tightly concentrated. Incremental growth from Brazil and steady output from Australia are likely to underpin supply, while declining exports from swing producers continue to limit flexibility. With demand remaining stable but cautious and inventories elevated, the market is likely to remain broadly rangebound with a bias toward volatility, particularly in the event of supply-side disruptions in major exporting regions.