India: Cumin market weakens as rollover pressure, sluggish demand weigh on sentiment

• Spot, near-month futures decline ahead of May contract expiry
  
  
• Muted export inquiries, ample physical supplies weigh on market
  
  

India cumin prices on NCDEX remained under pressure during the week ended 22 May 2026 as expiry-led liquidation in the near-month contract, subdued export inquiries, and comfortable physical supplies continued to weigh on overall market sentiment. Market participants largely remained on the sidelines amid expectations of adequate availability in the coming weeks, while weak buying interest from both domestic and overseas buyers restricted any meaningful recovery in prices.

NCDEX spot cumin prices declined marginally by INR 11/quintal (qtl) w-o-w to INR 19,928/qtl on 22 May from INR 19,939/qtl on 15 May. However, selling pressure was more visible in futures trade, particularly in the expiring May-20 contract, which settled at INR 19,150/qtl on expiry day, down INR 315/qtl from the previous week. Traders said the sharp decline in the expiring contract reflected aggressive long liquidation and a lack of fresh buying support ahead of final settlement.

The May contract expired at a discount of around INR 778/qtl to spot prices, highlighting weak near-term market confidence and ample supply availability in the physical market. Open interest in the May contract dropped sharply to only 69 lots from 1,278 lots a week earlier, indicating near-complete exit of positions before contract closure on 20 May.

Deferred contracts attract fresh participation

As the May contract expired, market activity shifted decisively toward deferred contracts. Open interest in the Jun-19 contract increased marginally to 10,476 lots from 10,305 lots, while the Jul-20 contract witnessed a sharp rise to 2,007 lots compared with 846 lots a week earlier, reflecting fresh hedging and rollover activity by traders and stockists.

The Jun contract closed at INR 19,510/qtl, carrying a discount of nearly INR 418/qtl to spot prices, while the July contract settled at INR 19,720/qtl, narrowing the discount to around INR 208/qtl. The carry cost between June and July contracts stood at nearly INR 210/qtl, indicating that traders expect prices to stabilise gradually in the coming months but remain cautious due to weak export demand and adequate domestic supplies.

According to traders in Unjha and Rajkot markets, export buying from key destinations remained slow during the week as overseas buyers continued purchasing on a need basis amid expectations of softer prices. Domestic buyers also maintained hand-to-mouth procurement, avoiding aggressive stock-building at current levels.

Supply-side pressure persists

All-India cumin arrivals remained largely stable at 11,338 tonnes (t) on 22 May compared with 11,360 t a week earlier, indicating steady inflow from major producing regions in Gujarat and Rajasthan. Meanwhile, NCDEX warehouse stocks increased further to 7,207 t from 7,126 t, reinforcing the view of comfortable availability within the exchange delivery system.

In the short term, cumin prices are expected to remain weak amid sufficient arrivals, rising exchange stocks, and subdued export demand. However, any improvement in overseas inquiries or stronger buying from stockists at lower levels could provide limited support to deferred contracts.