India: BigMint's iron ore fines export index remains stable amid subdued buying demand

• Exporters find current prices unviable for deals, bid-offer gaps emerge
  
  
• Higher oil prices lift transportation costs, narrow exporters' margins
  
  

India's iron ore export market remained largely stable this week, although trading activity in the seaborne market remained subdued due to weak buying interest and unfavorable price dynamics for exporters.

Prices, deals

BigMint's bi-weekly Indian low-grade iron ore fines (Fe 57%) export prices inched down by $1/t w-o-w to $60/t FOB east coast on 5 March 2026. No export deals were reported in this publishing window amid bid-offer disparities and limited buying interest.

Market participants noted that demand from Chinese traders was limited, with buyers reportedly seeking discounts of around 22-24% against the benchmark index.

Market scenario

Market participants noted that current prices were not viable for Indian exporters to conclude fresh deals. Several exporters mentioned that although offers remained stable, the lack of firm bids and inquiries from buyers kept trade activity muted.

One exporter said, "The seaborne market is quiet at the moment. Buyers are hesitant, and the current price realisation does not justify fresh shipments from India."

Demand from China was also relatively weak in recent days. Sources indicated that discounts for lower-grade iron ore widened in the global market, further impacting the competitiveness of Indian fines.

An international trader stated, "Lower-grade iron ore is facing wider discounts globally, especially in China. Due to the absence of active trades, the exact discount for Indian fines in the seaborne market is still unclear."

Freights have also emerged as a major concern for exporters. Market participants reported that vessel freight costs have increased sharply amid ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East region, which have pushed oil prices higher. A market participant observed, "With higher oil prices, transportation costs have gone up, which is narrowing exporters' margins."

At the same time, domestic iron ore prices in India remained relatively firm, making exports less attractive compared to domestic sales. Exporters said that the current domestic prices are not aligning with seaborne market realisations, further discouraging shipments.

Meanwhile, Chinese steel mills reportedly adopted a cautious procurement strategy. Reports indicated that mills are increasingly preferring higher-grade iron ore and lump purchases, while showing limited interest in lower-grade fines. In the Tangshan area, authorities have mandated steel output cuts of 30-50%, which will last until mid-March. As port inventories remained high, trading activity was slow.

Domestic vs export market

Domestic prices exceeded export realisations by around INR 650/t ($7/t), with the gap being largely stable w-o-w. Iron ore fines (Fe 57%) prices in Odisha were recorded at INR 3,950/t ($43/t) ex-mines, down INR 100/t w-o-w on 26 February. Meanwhile, the ex-mines realisation in exports from the Barbil region was recorded at INR 3,300/t ($36/t) ex-mines.

Chinese iron ore fines prices rise w-o-w: The benchmark iron ore fines Fe 61% index edged up by $1/dmt w-o-w to $101/dmt CFR China on 4 March. Trading activity slowed following strong restocking in the previous week, with buyers turning cautious amid macroeconomic volatility and restricting fresh demand. However, supportive import margins and ongoing restocking requirements sustained premiums. Material remained competitive, while high-grade fines also witnessed transactions.

DCE iron ore futures price up: Iron ore futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) for the May 2026 contract closed at RMB 761.5/t ($111/t) on 5 March, up RMB 13/t ($2/t) w-o-w.

Rationale

• No deal for Fe 57% was recorded during this publishing window and not taken under calculations. Therefore, T1 trade was given 0% weightage in the index calculation. For the detailed methodology, click here.
  
  
• BigMint received seventeen (17) indicative prices in the current publishing window, and fifteen (15) were considered for price calculation as T2 inputs and given rest 100% weightage.
  
  

Outlook

Iron ore export prices are likely to remain stable, with buying interest likely to stay subdued until demand conditions improve.