India BF-route rebar prices fall to 5-month low amid cautious buying sentiment

• Need-based demand and cautious procurement dragged BF-route rebar prices lower.
  
  
• Distributor inventories rose to 25-30 days, increasing market selling pressure.
  
  

Blast furnace (BF)-route rebar prices continued to soften this week, with trade-level (distributor-to-dealer) prices declining by INR 800/t ($8/t) w-o-w to INR 52,900/t ($556) exy-Mumbai as of 12 June 2026, according to BigMint assessments. Prices have fallen to their lowest level in five months, last seen in mid-January.

The correction was driven by subdued buying interest, adequate inventories at distributor levels(25-30 days), and a cautious procurement strategy adopted by market participants of both retail and project segment. Demand remained largely need-based across key regions, with southern markets witnessing particularly weak offtake. Stable raw material costs and the availability of lower-priced induction furnace (IF)-route rebar also pressured BF prices, widening the competitiveness gap.

Meanwhile, project rebar deals were heard in the range of INR 50,000-52,000/t ($525-$546/t) landed, reflecting buyers' preference for aggressive negotiations amid slow construction activity and weak demand visibility.

Factors driving market dynamics

1.IF rebar trade prices decline w-o-w: Induction furnace (IF) rebar trade prices softened across major markets this week amid limited trade activity. Buying remained largely need-based, with slow bookings in both finished and semi-finished steel segments keeping market sentiment cautious. To stimulate sales, producers lowered offers and extended additional discounts. Mills reported sales of around 50-70% of production, while inventories across most regions were reported at 10-15 days. Material dispatches of previously sold material remained smooth despite the sluggish market. Looking ahead, prices are expected to remain under pressure amid need-based demand, cautious procurement, and the onset of the monsoon season. In Mumbai, IF rebar trade prices fell by INR 500/t ($5/t) w-o-w to INR 45,700/t ($479/t) ex-works as of 12 June.

Mixed sentiment prevailed as public sector mills cut prices by INR 1,000-1,500/t, while select private mills provided support of up to INR 2,000/t amid improving demand and inventory-balancing efforts.

Meanwhile, the BF-IF rebar price spread in Mumbai wider further w-o-w to INR 7,200/t ($84). IF rebar continue to hold a dominant share in the Indian long steel market.

2.Raw materials: Raw material prices show mix trend w-o-w: Raw material Prices of key BF-route raw materials stayed largely stable during the week. BigMints Odisha iron ore fines (Fe 62%) index remained unchanged w-o-w at INR 5,100/t ($53/t) ex-mines as of 6 June.

Meanwhile, BigMint's premium hard coking coal (PHCC) prices slightly dropped by $1 d-o-d at $268/t CNF Paradip.3

Project updates

Infrastructure activity remained robust as contracts worth 1,135 crore were awarded, including Jaipur Metro, NHAI HAM, and fee plaza projects, supporting a positive outlook for construction-led steel demand.

Outlook

BF-route rebar prices are expected to remain under pressure in the near term amid high inventories, weak demand from both public and private sectors, the seasonal slowdown in construction activity ahead of the monsoon, and the widening price gap with IF-route rebar. Suppliers are likely to continue offering discounts to accelerate stock liquidation and support sales volumes.