Copper prices remain volatile w-o-w amid geopolitical shifts, macro headwinds

• Copper prices rise on sentiment, capped by high inventories
  
  
• Supply recovery builds, while demand remains cautious and uneven
  
  

Copper prices on the London Metal Exchange edged higher by $600/t over the week, rising from $12,250/t on 7 April to $12,850/t at the time of reporting (11:40 IST) on 10 April 2026, reflecting a volatile yet upward trend driven by improving sentiment and speculative activity despite underlying macro uncertainties. Gains were initially supported by improved global sentiment post market reopening, followed by a sharp rally on 8 April due to easing geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz. However, prices corrected on 9 April amid profit booking and rising oil prices, before rebounding again on 10 April supported by improved speculative positioning.

At the same time, rising inventories in LME warehouses indicate comfortable supply levels and subdued demand, which capped further upside and prevented a sharper rally. Futures marked a third consecutive weekly gain, supported by optimism around a potential US-Iran ceasefire and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which could ease inflation and support industrial activity.

Japan update

Japans non-ferrous sector is showing a steady recovery, with major smelters planning to increase base metal output in H1 FY26. Copper production is expected to reach around 761,000 t, up 3.3% y-o-y, driven by operational normalization and improved raw material processing.

Growth is supported by higher output from Pan Pacific Copper and Sumitomo Metal Mining following recovery from earlier disruptions and maintenance shutdowns. However, Mitsubishi Materials is likely to reduce production due to lower concentrate processing, while other players are expected to maintain stable output. DOWA Holdings plans to increase production, indicating a gradual improvement in Japans copper supply scenario.

India update

Hindustan Copper Limited reported strong operational growth in FY26, with MIC production rising 9% y-o-y to 27,421 t and ore production increasing 6% to 3.67 mnt. The company is expanding capacity through a 3.0 mtpa concentrator plant at Malanjkhand, targeting long-term growth and improved domestic supply.

Panama's government approval

Panama has approved a $250 million program by First Quantum Minerals to process stockpiled ore at the Cobre Panama mine, without resuming fresh mining activity. The mine, which earlier contributed ~1.7% of global supply, remains shut since 2023, with the current move offering only limited short-term supply support.

Outlook

Goldman Sachs expects a global copper surplus of around 490,000 t in 2026, citing weaker demand growth amid macro uncertainties. In the near term, prices are likely to remain volatile, supported by sentiment and supply risks but capped by high inventories and cautious demand.