China weekly: Steel prices show mixed trends w-o-w as raw material costs fluctuate

• China steel prices mixed as costs fluctuate
  
  
• Cautious demand and easing costs limit gains
  
  

China's steel prices remained mixed in the week ended 10 April 2026, with domestic hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices decreasing w-o-w, while rebar prices remained stable. Raw materials, including iron ore, billet and coking coal prices declined, while met coke prices edged up w-o-w.

Steel inventories at key mills tracked by the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) totalled around 16.55 million tonnes (mnt) in late-March 2026 (21-31 March), dropping by 1.36 mnt or 7.6% compared with 17.91 mnt in mid-March 2026.

Inventories dropped by 790,000 tonnes (t) or 4.6% compared with the 17.34 mnt in late-February. Furthermore, inventory levels rose by 1.32 mnt or 8.6% y-o-y against 15.23 mnt a year ago.

1.Iron ore spot prices declined w-o-w: Iron ore fines benchmark prices for Fe 61% dropped by $3/t w-o-w to $105/dmt CFR China on 10 Apr'26. Prices eased amid limited buying interest in mainstream medium-grade material across seaborne and port markets, with cautious procurement continuing. The decline was driven by weaker steel demand, expectations of higher supply, and a softer supply-demand balance, while increased portside availability under long-term contracts may cap near-term price upside.

a) Spot pellet premium edge down w-o-w: Spot pellet premium for Fe 65% grade pellet declined by $0.75/t to $17.00/t CFR China on 8 Apr.

b) Spot lump premium rises w-o-w: Spot lump premium grew by $0.01/t w-o-w to $0.1670/dmtu on 10 Apr.

2. China's coke market stabilises after earlier price hikes: In China, the coke market remained largely stable following the first round of price increases implemented earlier. Supply experienced minor disruptions at some coal mines, while continued inflows of Mongolian coal added supply-side pressure. On the demand side, gradual blast furnace restarts and stable pig iron output provided some support, although downstream buyers largely shifted to need-based procurement. As a result, Chinese coke prices are currently expected to remain range-bound, with futures markets closely tracking movements in coking coal costs.

In the seaborne market, Australian premium hard coking coal (PHCC) prices edged down by $3/t to $234/t FOB as of 10 April 2026. BigMint's PHCC index fell $7/t w-o-w to $255/t CNF Paradip on 10 Apr'26, amid weak buying interest and lower Australia-India freight rates. Additionally, India's coking coal imports in Mar 2026 remained on higher side at 6 5 mnt, limiting fresh inquiries.

3. Billet prices soften w-o-w: Chinese billet prices declined w-o-w by RMB 10/t ($2/t) to RMB 2,970/t ($435/t) on 10 April, compared with RMB 2,980/t ($433/t) on 3 April, as gains early in the week faded amid weak demand and softer cost support. Prices remained largely range-bound initially due to post-holiday inactivity and neutral stocking, before declining mid-week on falling raw material prices, including iron ore and coke. A slight recovery was seen toward the end of the week, supported by improved short-term sentiment and limited restocking activity.

Overall demand remained subdued, capping any strong upward movement. Easing input costs, particularly declining iron ore prices, continued to weigh on market sentiment.

4. Domestic HRC prices dropped w-o-w: The Chinese HRC prices stood at around RMB 3110/t ($457/t) on 10 April dropping by RMB 10/t ($1/t) w-o-w from RMB 3120/t ($456/t) a week ago. Furthermore, SHFE HRC futures (May 2026 contract), also fell marginally by RMB 11/t ($2/t) to RMB 3,257/t ($477/t) from RMB 3,268/t ($479/t) a week earlier. Meanwhile, China's HRC export offers increased by $5/t w-o-w to around $505/t from $500/t FOB a week earlier.

Market participants largely adopted a cautious stance, with buying interest limited to immediate requirements amid ongoing concerns over sluggish consumption and sufficient supply availability.

Furthermore, Baosteel has increased its HRC prices by RMB 100/t ($15/t) m-o-m for May'26 sales compared with prices in April. However, prices of hot-dip galvanised remain unchanged.

5. Rebar prices remain stable w-o-w: The rebar prices in China remain unaltered in the week at around RMB 3,210/t ($470/t) as on 10 April. However, in SHFE futures, the May 2026 rebar contract was seen dropping this week by RMB 29/t ($4/t) to RMB 3,071/t ($450/t) as on 10 April from RMB 3,100/t ($454/t) a week ago.

China's domestic rebar prices continued decline, pressured by persistently high inventory levels across major cities and a continued drop in coking coal futures, which weakened cost support and further weighed on market sentiment.

Outlook

China's steel market is expected to remain largely stable in the coming week, as the initial support from geopolitical tensions begins to ease. Spot prices are likely to hold steady in the near term, while softer futures sentiment and cautious downstream demand may limit any significant upside. Overall, market direction will depend on trends in raw material prices, the pace of demand recovery and how geopolitical developments unfold. If the ceasefire continues to hold, prices are likely to correct gradually. However, any renewed escalation in tensions could drive prices higher again.