China: Iron ore imports grow over 10% y-o-y in Q1CY'26 amid strong supply

• Restocking activity supports stronger import volumes
  
  
• Strong miner output ensures ample global supply
  
  

China's imports of iron ore and concentrates rose to 314.76 million tonnes (mnt) in Q1CY'26, registering a 10.5% y-o-y increase compared to the corresponding period in 2025, according to data released by the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China (GACC).

In March 2026, China imported 104.74 mnt, up by 11% y-o-y , reflecting stronger procurement activity and improved supply-side conditions. The yearly surge was fuelled by lower iron ore spot prices for Fe 61% grade which dipped to around $99/t in Feb'26.

However, China's steel sector saw a gradual ramp-up in blast furnace (BF) utilisation rates through Q1, supported by improved mill margins and stable operating conditions. This led to higher hot metal output, directly increasing iron ore consumption.

Factors behind increase in iron ore imports:

• Improved downstream demand from infrastructure: While real estate demand remained uneven, infrastructure-led steel consumption improved, supported by targeted government spending and project acceleration. This provided a stable demand base for steel mills, translating into higher raw material intake.
  
  
• Higher output from major global miners: Production from leading iron ore miners, particularly in Australia and Brazil, remained strong in Q1CY'26, supported by improved operational efficiencies and fewer weather-related disruptions compared to last year. Major producers reported steady to higher shipment volumes, ensuring ample seaborne supply and enabling higher Chinese imports. Australia exported around 178 mnt of iron ore and pellets to China in Jan-Mar'26 against 160 mnt in the same period previous year.
  
  
• Stable and accommodative global supply: In addition to steady shipments, progress in new mining projects like Simandou iron ore globally ensured adequate supply availability. The overall supply environment remained supportive of higher inflows during the quarter. However, reports suggest that a stabler geo-political weather would have been prompted a better March volumes.
  
  
• Portside inventories maintained at elevated levels: Following a relatively weak procurement cycle in Q1CY'25, mills and traders actively rebuilt and maintained higher portside inventories in early 2026, supported by a more stable price environment and expectations of seasonal demand recovery. Average Chinese iron ore port inventories rose to 143 mnt in Q1CY'26, compared to 127 mnt in Q1CY'25, reflecting a planned inventory build-up to support steady production and mitigate supply-side uncertainties.
  
  

Outlook

China's iron ore imports are expected to remain firm in the near term, supported by seasonal strength in the second quarter dispatches and steady steel production levels. Continued stability and expectations of increase in global supply, along with incremental volumes from upcoming mining projects, may further support imports. However, demand-side risks linked to the property sector and evolving global trade dynamics will remain key factors to watch.