Weekly round-up: Indian coal market sentiment remains cautious amid comfortable supply conditions

• Buyers prefer need-based procurement only
  
  
• Freight volatility impacts imported coal demand
  
  

Indian coal market sentiment remained cautious in the week ended 22 May 2026 as weak sponge iron, steel, and cement demand continued limiting aggressive buying activity across imported and domestic segments. Buyers largely preferred requirement-based procurement amid comfortable inventories, steady domestic coal availability, and slower downstream activity ahead of the monsoon. Imported coal prices stayed supported by firm freight and global cues, but actual trade movement remained slow due to widening bid-offer gaps, weak margins, and cautious industrial sentiment across key consuming sectors.

Indonesian coal prices rise further on currency depreciation, policy concerns

Indian portside Indonesian thermal coal prices increased sharply, supported by rupee weakness, firm global benchmarks, and higher freight costs. High-grade 5,000 GAR coal prices increased nearly INR 500/t w-o-w to around INR 10,800/t at Kandla and INR 10,700/t at Visakhapatnam. Mid-grade 4,200 GAR prices rose around INR 400/t, while lower-grade 3,400 GAR coal increased nearly INR 350/t amid firm industrial demand.

Market sentiment also remained supported by uncertainty surrounding Indonesia's proposed coal export reforms and tighter spot cargo availability. Meanwhile, Supramax freight from East Kalimantan to Navlakhi increased around $1/t w-o-w to nearly $22/t. Coal inventories at Indian thermal power plants declined around 6% w-o-w to nearly 50 mnt, although overall supply conditions remained comfortable amid subdued industrial demand.

South African coal trade stays weak on falling sponge prices

South African thermal coal sentiment at Indian ports remained subdued, though prices rose despite weak sponge iron demand and comfortable domestic coal availability. While global coal indices and freight rates stayed firm, actual market activity remained extremely slow with limited enquiries and widening bid-offer disparities across portside markets. Ex-Paradip RB2 (5,500 NAR) prices increased INR 100/t w-o-w to INR 11,450/t, while RB3 (4,800 NAR) remained stable at around INR 9,800/t.

Offers for 5,500 NAR coal were heard around $96-97/t FOB, while 4,800 NAR cargoes were discussed near $77/t FOB. Freight from Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) to Vizag for 30,000 t cargoes was heard around $23/t, including Disbursement Account (DA) charges. Meanwhile, pellet-based sponge iron (PDRI) DAP-Durgapur prices dropped sharply by INR 1,200/t w-o-w to INR 23,700/t, keeping procurement largely requirement-based. Port inventories declined 4.5% w-o-w to 15.16 mnt, though overall stocks remained comfortable and continued limiting fresh import bookings.

Domestic coal sentiment stays weak

Domestic coal prices remained subdued amid weak industrial demand and comfortable supply availability. BigMint assessed 5,000 GCV coal prices lower by around INR 500/t w-o-w, while 4,500 GCV material declined around INR 200/t to nearly INR 4,100/t. Market participants stated that buying activity remained slow as sponge iron and steel demand stayed weak, keeping procurement largely requirement-based. Meanwhile, washery grade 38FC coal was offered at around INR 5,400-5,800/t exw-plant Bilaspur region plus GST during the week. Comfortable domestic coal availability and lower auction premiums continued pressuring market sentiment and limiting aggressive price movement across regions.

US NAPP coal gains fuel advantage

US-origin NAPP thermal coal continued strengthening its position in India's cement fuel mix amid better delivered-cost economics compared with imported petcoke. US 6,900 NAR coal was heard around low-to-mid $130s/t CFR west coast India, while imported petcoke remained higher near $147-152/t CFR. As per BigMint's assessment, portside US 6,900 NAR coal at Kandla increased INR 100/t w-o-w to INR 13,500/t.

Market participants stated that cement producers increasingly preferred fuel flexibility and lower heat-generation costs over outright cargo pricing. Meanwhile, retail lifting declined to 94,410 t in Week 20 from 112,392 t in Week 19, while Kandla and Tuna inventories increased sharply to 587,805 t. Buyers largely continued requirement-based procurement amid comfortable inventories and cautious monsoon demand outlook.

Petcoke prices correct downwards as demand stays subdued

Global fuel-grade petcoke prices remained under pressure for the fourth consecutive week as weak Indian cement demand and competitive coal pricing continued limiting buying interest. Imported petcoke prices for 6.5-8.5% sulphur material were heard around $147-152/t CFR India, while Oman-origin cargoes were discussed near $140-143/t CFR west coast India. Buyers largely avoided aggressive restocking and continued requirement-based procurement ahead of the monsoon season.

Market participants stated that cement producers remained highly price-sensitive and increasingly focused on procurement flexibility amid volatile freight and fuel economics. Increased spot cargo availability from the US Gulf Coast also pressured global sentiment after refinery operations normalised. Participants indicated that suppliers may continue reducing offers to revive buying activity, particularly for high-sulphur grades facing stronger competition from alternative fuels.

Met coke prices stay firm

India's blast furnace (BF)-grade metallurgical coke prices remained largely stable on 21 May 2026 amid balanced supply-demand dynamics and firm import parity. Ex-Jajpur BF-grade coke prices increased marginally by INR 300/t w-o-w to INR 36,700/t, while ex-Gandhidham prices remained stable at INR 33,500/t. Foundry-grade coke prices also stayed unchanged at INR 36,400/t ex-Rajkot.

A bulk trade for 15,000 t was reportedly concluded at INR 37,000/t ex-warehouse, reflecting steady procurement interest. Indonesian-origin BF-grade coke was assessed stable at around $302/t CFR India following improved import sentiment after the Directorate General of Trade Remedies' proposal to reduce anti-dumping duty. Meanwhile, Australian premium hard coking coal (PHCC) prices increased $8/t w-o-w to $241/t FOB Australia, supporting global coke costs. Pig iron prices in Durgapur increased marginally by INR 150/t to INR 38,450/t, although buyer sentiment remained cautious amid fluctuating finished steel demand.

Steel ministry seeks review of met coke anti-dumping duty

India's Ministry of Steel urged the Ministry of Finance to reconsider and withdraw the anti-dumping duty on imported metallurgical coke amid concerns over limited domestic availability and rising steelmaking costs. The ministry stated that RINL has faced difficulty procuring met coke at competitive prices, resulting in nearly 20% higher input costs and affecting operational viability. Smaller steelmakers also remained impacted due to dependence on merchant suppliers.

Coal freights show mixed trend

Coal freights to India showed mixed trends w-o-w. Australia-to-India Panamax freights from Hay Point to Paradip declined by $0.6/t w-o-w to $25.5/t amid weak Pacific enquiries and rising vessel availability. In contrast, RBCT-to-Paradip freights increased by $0.7/t to $21.7/t due to tight prompt tonnage, while East Kalimantan-to-Navlakhi Supramax freights rose $1/t to $22/t, supported by firm Indonesian coal demand and balanced vessel supply. Market participants stated that fixture activity remained slow as bid-offer gaps widened between charterers and vessel owners.

The Baltic Dry Index fell 231 points w-o-w to 2,964, hitting a two-week low, while the Panamax index declined sharply by 227 points to 2,276. In contrast, the Supramax index increased 13 points to 1,571 amid balanced vessel availability and steady Indonesian coal movement. Bunker prices also declined by $32/t w-o-w to $803/t, while Brent crude eased to $105.5/bbl. Participants indicated that Panamax sentiment may remain under pressure amid weak Pacific coal enquiry and slower fixture activity.