Weekly round-up: Global billet markets remain mixed amid supply concerns, weak rebar demand

• Freight costs, supply disruptions keep GCC billet prices supported
  
  
• Weak downstream demand in Turkiye continues to limit aggressive buying
  
  

Global billet markets remained mixed during the week ended 23 May 2026 amid elevated freight costs, geopolitical uncertainty, and tight supply conditions. Meanwhile, weak downstream rebar demand and cautious buyer sentiment continued limiting aggressive buying activity across key regions.

The CIS/Black Sea market recorded firmer offers amid a stronger rouble and rising production costs, while Chinese billet prices softened due to weaker domestic sentiment. GCC markets also remained supported by logistics disruptions and supply concerns linked to the Strait of Hormuz.

Turkiye's deep-sea imported scrap market softened slightly during the week amid cautious mill buying and muted trading activity following public holidays. Weak construction demand and sluggish rebar sales continued pressuring mill margins, while the scrap-to-rebar spread remained narrow at around $177-179/t. Market participants said Turkish mills still need to secure around 14-15 additional cargoes for June shipments, which continued supporting scrap prices.

Asian billet market

Asian billet markets showed mixed movements this week, with Chinese billet prices easing to RMB 3,040/t ($447/t) on 22 May from RMB 3,090/t ($454/t) a week earlier. Export offers from China also softened to $475-476/t FOB for July-August shipments, down from $485-490/t FOB, pressured by weaker SHFE rebar futures, softer Tangshan billet prices, sluggish downstream demand, and adverse weather conditions affecting construction.

In Southeast Asia, open-origin 5sp billet offers eased to around $510/t CFR, with bids near $500/t CFR. China-origin offers to the Philippines softened to about $500-505/t CFR due to weak demand and rainy season pressures, with bids near $500/t CFR, though no fresh deals were reported.

Indonesia's major steel mill held August billet offers at $495-500/t FOB after previously selling 50,000 t at $490/t FOB. No additional transactions were reported as buyers remained cautious amid softer regional demand.

SHFE rebar futures settled at RMB 3,145/t ($463/t) on 22 May, slightly down from RMB 3,171/t ($466/t) a week earlier, weighed by weaker finished steel demand and cautious buying sentiment.

CIS/Black Sea billet market

Billet prices in the CIS/Black Sea region moved higher w-o-w, supported by firmer seller control, rising costs, and continued appreciation of the Russian rouble. Export billet offers from Russia increased to around $488-490/t FOB Black Sea for July shipment, compared with $485/t FOB earlier in the week.

Market participants noted that the stronger rouble continued pressuring exporters' margins, limiting mills' ability to provide discounts. Several suppliers reportedly reduced export activity for June cargoes due to unfavorable exchange rates and elevated operating costs.

Despite stronger offers, buying activity remained limited. Buyers in Turkiye largely targeted workable levels at $500-505/t CFR, equivalent to around $480-490/t FOB Black Sea, while CIS suppliers maintained offers at $510-515/t CFR. Some bids reached $505-510/t CFR for small-volume cargoes, though no major deals were confirmed.

Meanwhile, billet export offers from Turkiye remained stable around $545/t FOB, while Turkish export rebar prices were largely unchanged near $590/t FOB.

In Egypt, discussions for Russian billet cargoes were heard around $520-525/t CFR, although buyers questioned the commercial viability of such levels due to safeguard duties and weak rebar margins.

GCC billet market

GCC billet markets remained firm during the week amid geopolitical uncertainty, logistics disruptions, and tight raw material availability.

In Saudi Arabia, scrap prices increased by SAR 50-100/t ($13-26/t) to SAR 1,600-1,800/t ($416-468/t), while local billet prices strengthened to around $660-680/t exw amid tight supply and improved mill margins. The latest billet import deal into Jeddah was heard at $515-520/t CFR for 50,000 t cargoes, while buyers targeted $520-525/t CFR against supplier offers at $535-540/t CFR. Chinese billet offers to Red Sea ports were estimated at $525-530/t CFR, Indonesian material at $530-540/t CFR, and Russian billet at $490-500/t FOB, equivalent to nearly $535-550/t CFR Jeddah, depending on freight levels.

Market participants said freight economics and cargo size remain key challenges, with buyers preferring smaller 15,000-20,000 t cargoes despite lower freight costs for larger shipments. Saudi buyers were mainly sourcing billet from Indonesia and China amid limited regional availability. Meanwhile, Al Tilal Steel restarted production after nearly six months of inactivity, which may gradually improve domestic billet supply.

In the UAE, billet indications were heard at around $540-560/t CFR, while ECAS certification requirements and logistics disruptions continued to impact cargo flows and steel deliveries across the region.

Iran's billet market remained under pressure amid geopolitical tensions, logistics disruptions, and worsening electricity shortages. Billet offers were largely heard at $410-415/t FOB, while trader offers were reported at $395-405/t exw. Trading activity remained slow due to sanctions, shipping disruptions, and power restrictions, with some mills reportedly operating at nearly 55-60% capacity.

Outlook

Global billet markets are expected to remain supported in the upcoming days due to elevated freight costs, supply chain disruptions, and constrained raw material availability. However, weak downstream demand, especially in the rebar sector, is likely to continue limiting aggressive buying activity and preventing sharp price increases. Buyers across most regions are expected to continue focusing on short-term requirements while monitoring freight conditions, geopolitical developments, and overall steel demand trends.