Weekly round-up: Global billet markets remain firm as logistics risks persist

• Asia demand weakens after bookings in the later part of March
  
  
• GCC logistics disruptions tighten regional supply
  
  

Global billet markets remained supported in early April, by the week ended 10 April, driven by supply-side constraints and ongoing logistics disruptions, although weak downstream demand and cautious buying continued to limit overall trade activity across regions.

In Turkiye's deep-sea segment, mills continued restocking at the beginning of April, albeit at a slower pace and at relatively firm levels. While additional scrap volumes are still required, weak rebar sales have constrained purchasing appetite.

CIS & Black Sea

Billet demand in Turkiye remained cautious, with mills continuing limited restocking at relatively firm levels. Weak rebar sales and squeezed margins kept buying largely need-based, restricting fresh bookings. High import billet costs and limited domestic availability left mills with few alternatives, sustaining reliance on imports. Market participants added that insufficient domestic scrap supply will likely keep this dependence intact going forward.

Business activity in the domestic billet market remained slow despite continued offers. Kardemir reopened sales in the latter half of the week, maintaining prices at $540/t and $550/t exw for different grades, although no clear sales volumes were reported, indicating deals were likely limited or targeted.

Other domestic mills offered billet at $550-560/t exw, but higher-end offers saw limited traction. "$555-560/t exw is not workable this week," a rebar producer noted, reflecting weak buying interest and cautious market sentiment.

In imports, Russian billet was steady at around $490/t CFR and considered workable. Chinese offers for June shipment were at $500-515/t CFR but saw limited interest due to long delivery timelines. Malaysian billet was available at $530-535/t CFR, though overall buying remained subdued amid weak downstream demand.

Upstream sentiment in the CIS region remains uncertain as Russia considers tightening control over raw material flows, including a potential scrap export ban to secure domestic supply. The Association of Electric Steelmaking Enterprises (AEMP) has proposed a full ban, citing risks of future shortages and a broader shift toward resource protectionism.

However, industry participants remain divided, noting that exports are critical for survival amid weak demand. Scrap consumption declined by around 30% y-o-y in Q1 2026 and is expected to fall to 11.8-12 mnt in 2026, compared to 14.5-15 mnt in 2025 and about 18 mnt in 2024.

A market source said scrap exports are not profitable but are helping sustain the sector, warning that reduced collection could push prices higher. At the same time, mills are gradually shifting toward alternatives like HBI, while Russia's scrap export quota for 2026 stands at 2.2 mnt, with duties structured to discourage excess exports.

China & Southeast Asia

In Asia, billet market activity slowed as buyers largely covered requirements earlier. In the Philippines, China-origin 5sp billet offers were at $485-490/t CFR, with bids at $480/t CFR and no fresh deals reported. A local buyer noted that "overall volumes remain low as demand is weak," -- a subdued economic conditions and cautious purchasing.

Across Southeast Asia, General-origin billet offers were heard at $490-500/t CFR, while bids remained at $480-485/t CFR, highlighting a persistent bid-offer gap. Chinese mills maintained firm offers at $460-465/t FOB for June shipments, supported by healthy order books and reduced competition from Iranian suppliers.

As per a South East Asian trading house source, "Didn't see any change in Asia market as such. Same offered levels as of last week. But I heard Russian offers touched 485-490 CFR Turkiye and heard that Chinese Billets sold around $490/t CFR Philippines for 5sp grade 150mmsq last week"

Earlier strong bookings in March--including 90,000 t to Thailand, 30,000-40,000 t to the Philippines, 100,000 t to Oman, and 50,000-60,000 t to Turkiye--have reduced immediate buying requirements.

Indonesian producer Dexin Steel reduced offers by $5/t to $485/t FOB amid weak demand, although stronger slab demand provided partial support.

GCC region

In Saudi Arabia, imports via Red Sea ports continue relatively unaffected, although negotiations with Russian suppliers remain slow due to shipment risks. A regional buyer noted that "suppliers are hesitant to commit amid logistical uncertainty."

In the UAE, Indonesian ECAS-certified billets were booked at $480-490/t FOB, translating to $530-540/t CFR UAE for May shipments, while Chinese offers remained lower but less preferred.

The region continues to face severe logistics disruptions due to constraints in the Strait of Hormuz, delaying raw material inflows and creating a backlog in semis and metallics. Market participants highlighted limited visibility on cargo arrivals, complicating procurement planning.

"The issue now is not only supply, but timing," a mill source said, with several producers adjusting operations and opting for maintenance shutdowns due to feedstock shortages. Alternative routing via Fujairah and Sohar is increasingly being utilised; however, higher logistics costs, handling complexities, and longer transit times limit its effectiveness.

Across the GCC, billet trade remains fragmented, with sporadic deals reflecting supply challenges. A 30,000 t Chinese billet cargo booked at $480/t FOB Oman (equivalent to $520-530/t CPT UAE) highlights the growing reliance on indirect routing. Additional cargoes via Sohar and Fujairah underline a structural shift in trade flows.