USDA forecasts record 25 mnt of Indian rice exports in MY 2026-27

• Robust MSP procurement, elevated stocks to support exports
  
  
• Rice ending stocks projected to remain above 50 mnt
  
  

India's rice sector continues to remain well supplied, supported by strong procurement under the Minimum Support Price (MSP) programme, record domestic availability, and comfortable stock levels. According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), India's rice exports are expected to reach a record 25 million tonnes (mnt), while ending stocks are projected to stay at high levels.

MSP procurement remains strong

Government rice procurement under MSP during MY 2025-26 (through 4 June 2026) is estimated at 54.15 mnt, compared with 51.16 mnt during the corresponding period last year. With higher rabi/summer rice production expected, procurement is likely to continue through September 2026. As a result, total rice procurement in MY 2025-26 is projected to reach 58 mnt, up from 55.5 mnt last year and significantly above the government's annual rice requirement of 40-42 mnt for public distribution and food security programmes.

Rice exports recover after slow start

According to preliminary trade statistics, India's rice exports during MY 2025-26 through April 2026 are estimated at 13.4 mnt, compared with 14.5 mnt during the same period last year. The report notes that after a relatively weak start in the first quarter, monthly export volumes have steadily recovered since February 2026. Trade sources indicate that Indian rice remains competitively priced compared with other origins due to relatively weak domestic prices and the depreciation of the Indian rupee against the US dollar in recent months. Assuming current price competitiveness continues, rice exports are expected to average around 2 mnt per month during the remainder of the marketing year, taking MY 2025-26 exports to a record 23 mnt.

Record export forecast for MY 2026-27

USDA FAS has maintained its forecast for MY 2026-27 rice exports at a record 25 mnt. The projection is based on surplus domestic supplies and continued competitive pricing of Indian rice relative to other origins. The report also notes that the government is unlikely to impose export restrictions, as current stock levels are considered more than sufficient to undertake market interventions if required to control domestic prices.

Domestic consumption revised higher

Rice consumption during MY 2025-26 has been revised upward to 125 mnt. The increase reflects higher domestic supplies and greater government offloading of excess rice stocks into the domestic market and to ethanol manufacturers at subsidised prices.

Ending stocks raised to record levels

USDA FAS has raised MY 2025-26 ending rice stocks to 54 mnt, supported by higher production and stronger government procurement. MY 2026-27 ending stocks are also forecast at a comfortable 51 mnt. Government rice stocks as of 1 May 2026 were estimated at 68.8 mnt, compared with 59.5 mnt during the same period last year. At the current pace of offtake through food security programmes, open market sales, and sales to ethanol producers, government stocks on 1 October 2026 are projected at 50 mnt, up from 44.9 mnt a year earlier. Private sector rice stocks, largely held by exporters, are estimated at 4 mnt compared with 3.1 mnt last year. Consequently, MY 2025-26 ending stocks are projected at a record 54 mnt.

Outlook

India's rice market is expected to remain well supplied through MY 2026-27, supported by strong procurement, elevated government inventories, and surplus domestic availability. With exports projected to reach a record 25 mnt and ending stocks forecast above 50 mnt, India is expected to maintain its strong presence in the global rice trade.