US scrap exports fall to lowest level in two decades in 2025 on rising domestic consumption

• Better mill utilisation, higher crude steel output boost scrap demand
  
  
• Turkiye remains top destination; Mexico imports drop 45%
  
  
• Net scrap trade balance narrows to below 8 mnt on rising imports
  
  

Morning Brief: US ferrous scrap exports totaled 12.1 million tonnes (mnt) in 2025, down 16% y-o-y from 14.5 mnt in 2024, marking the lowest level in over two decades (12 mnt in 2004).

The decline in exports has been primarily driven by the impact of higher steel import tariffs, which have strengthened domestic steel production and increased scrap consumption within the US market. While global markets faced demand-side challenges, stable US steel production and firm pricing encouraged higher domestic scrap usage, limiting export availability.

The US's scrap generation stood at 65.3 mnt in 2025, down 2% from 66.6 mnt in 2024, despite improved collection efficiency and better domestic availability. Reduced competitiveness of US-origin scrap was also due to subdued finished steel markets, tighter mill margins, and increased availability of alternative raw materials such as billets. The decline was further exacerbated by rising freight costs and stronger competition from other exporting regions.

On a destination basis, exports fell across all major markets. Shipments to Turkiye declined 14% y-o-y to 3.8 mnt, while exports to Mexico dropped sharply by 45% to 1.17 mnt. Volumes to Bangladesh decreased 28% to 1.33 mnt, while India and Taiwan recorded declines of 19% and 21%, respectively, reflecting broad-based weakness in global scrap demand.

Factors driving US scrap exports lower

Scrap intensity and tariff impact

The US domestic scrap market remained resilient in 2025, supported by stable steel output and continued expansion in electric arc furnace (EAF) capacity. Stronger internal demand significantly reduced export availability, as mills increasingly relied on scrap as a primary feedstock.

Scrap intensity, which reflects the share of scrap used in crude steel production, has remained above 70% in recent years and stood at around 71% in CY'25. This underscores the strong dependence on scrap, largely driven by EAF-based steelmaking, with minor variations due to the use of pig iron and DRI.

Higher steel import tariffs have reshaped the market by reducing the competitiveness of imported steel and supporting domestic production. As a result, mill operating rates increased, leading to higher scrap consumption within the US.

Following the tariff hike to 50% in June, mill utilisation rose by about 3-4% to nearly 80% on an average, translating into a notable increase in monthly scrap demand. In response, US exporters redirected more material--especially shredded scrap--toward domestic mills to meet this growing requirement.

US crude steel production rose by 3% y-o-y to 82 mnt in 2025, compared to 79.5 mnt in 2024. Firm steel prices also supported mill margins, allowing producers to outbid overseas buyers and retain scrap within the domestic market.

US ferrous scrap consumption increased to 58 mnt in 2025, up 4% y-o-y from 55.8 mnt in 2024, supported by stronger utilisation in scrap-based steelmaking. Of the total, domestic consumption stood at 53.2 mnt, while imports contributed around 4.8 mnt.

Weak overseas demand

Lower steel prices in key regions such as Turkiye and Asia further reduced the competitiveness of US-origin scrap in export markets. As a result, the gap between domestic and international prices has widened, encouraging suppliers to focus on the US market.

Pig iron imports

Besides a jump in its scrap imports, the US' Pig iron imports rose by 13% y-o-y to 5.3 mnt in 2025 compared to 4.69 mnt in 2024, highlighting increased reliance on alternative metallics. Mills used pig iron to supplement scrap, particularly amid tighter availability of prime grades, reflecting evolving raw material strategies to maintain production efficiency and cost balance.

Prices soften amid higher supplies

Despite strong domestic demand, US scrap export prices trended lower in 2025 due to weak global buying interest and increased competitive pressures. Ample scrap availability, improved collection rates, and subdued demand from key importing markets weighed on pricing, while rising freight costs and currency fluctuations further squeezed exporter margins. As a result, major buyers reduced volumes or delayed bookings, leading to softer trade activity.

Shredded scrap: Export prices for shredded scrap averaged $346/t in 2025, down from $375/t in 2024, reflecting a decline of around $29/t y-o-y. The drop was primarily driven by weaker demand from major importers and competition from alternative raw materials such as billets.

HMS 80:20: Export prices averaged $326/t in 2025, compared to $355/t in 2024, also down by around $29/t y-o-y. Prices were pressured by subdued global demand, ample supply, and reduced competitiveness of US-origin cargoes in the seaborne market.

Outlook

Looking ahead, the US ferrous scrap market is expected to remain supported by strong steel production and ongoing EAF capacity growth. Export volumes are likely to stay under pressure in the near term unless there is a meaningful recovery in global steel demand.

Price trends will depend on the balance between domestic consumption and scrap availability. While ample supply may weigh on certain grades, firm domestic demand is expected to provide a floor to prices. Additionally, developments in freight rates, currency movements, and international trade dynamics will play a key role in shaping export competitiveness.