UAE: Emirates Steel holds rebar offer stable for May'26 amid weak demand, supply risks

• Weak demand to cap upside despite cost pressure
  
  
• Supply tightness to prevent sharp price correction
  
  

Emirates Steel has maintained its May rebar offer at AED 2,721/t ($741/t) ex-works, signalling an effort to stabilise the domestic market despite persistent cost pressures, logistical disruptions, and soft demand conditions. Industry sources suggested that the price rollover also reflects a broader intent to support the construction sector and align with national economic priorities during a volatile period.

The offer remains valid under 90-day LC terms, with an additional AED 92/t ($25/t) surcharge for 8 mm rebar. Market sources also indicated incentives of around AED 65-70/t ($18-19/t) for bulk volumes, effectively lowering net transaction levels.

Market activity remained subdued in April, with total rebar bookings declining to around 0.4-0.45 mnt, compared with 0.5 mnt in March and nearly 0.6 mnt in 2M 2026. Participants attributed the slowdown to geopolitical tensions, which have disrupted trade flows and dampened construction-linked demand.

Prices remain rangebound despite cost pressures

Emirates Steel concluded deals at AED 2,670-2,680/t ($727-730/t) exw in early April, slightly lower than AED 2,690-2,700/t ($732-735/t) recorded in March. In contrast, other re-rollers increased their offers to AED 2,620-2,680/t ($713-730/t), up from AED 2,450-2,500/t ($667-681/t) for March orders, reflecting mounting input cost pressures. Notably, some mills were heard quoting above Emirates Steel an uncommon trend in a market where the producer typically sets the benchmark.

Supply disruptions tighten raw material availability

Higher costs linked to regional conflict, including constrained billet supply and disruptions at Jebel Ali port, have tightened supply conditions. Mills reported limited trade opportunities and restricted raw material inflows, with margins coming under pressure as producers struggled to pass on higher costs.

Production cuts likely

Market sources expect production curtailments in the near term, with some mills likely to operate at around 45-50% capacity in May due to elevated costs and constrained raw material availability.

Outlook

The UAE rebar market is likely to remain cautious in the coming days, as mills balance weak demand against tightening supply conditions. While price stability may persist, any meaningful upside will depend on improvements in demand, logistics, and raw material availability.