South Africa: Non-coking coal exports rise in May'25 on sharp uptick in Indian demand*

• South Africa's exports climb up 30% y-o-y
  
  
• India's imports rise 58% y-o-y, 12% m-o-m
  
  

South Africa's non-coking coal exports were recorded at 6.15 million tonnes (mnt)* in May 2025, marking a 17% rise from 5.24 mnt in April and a 30% surge from 4.75 mnt in May 2024, according to BigMint data. The rebound in shipments followed a subdued volume in April and reflected stronger vessel movements, smoother port operations, and improved demand from key Asian buyers.

Cumulative exports during January-May 2025 stood at 28.66 mnt.

India's imports climb up m-o-m, rise sharply y-o-y
India remained the largest buyer, importing 3.71 mnt of South African coal in May 2025, up 12% from 3.32 mnt in April. On a y-o-y basis, India's imports surged 58% compared with 2.35 mnt in May 2024, driven by firm demand from industries.

Mixed trends among other buyers
Pakistan's intake dropped sharply to 0.19 mnt in May 2025 from 0.42 mnt in April, reflecting a slowdown in procurement. Morocco also saw reduced inflows at 0.19 mnt versus 0.32 mnt previously. In contrast, Vietnam resumed imports after a month's gap with 0.24 mnt, while Israel ramped up buying to 0.17 mnt from 0.06 mnt. The Netherlands, which had recorded nil volumes in April 2025, imported 0.23 mnt in May 2025.

Several new or infrequent destinations, including the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Italy, and Spain, received moderate volumes, suggesting broader diversification of South African coal across smaller Asian and European markets. Some regular buyers, such as Japan and Malaysia, recorded no imports in May after purchasing small quantities in April.

Market overview

In May 2025, South African thermal coal prices witnessed a downtrend m-o-m. At Gangavaram, RB3 fell by INR 100/t m-o-m to INR 7,100/t exw, while RB2 was at $86/t CNF, down $3/t.

This week, South African thermal coal prices in India continued to be under pressure. As per BigMint's latest assessment, RB2 (5500 NAR) at Gangavaram fell by another INR 100/t w-o-w to INR 7,800/t, while RB3 (4800 NAR) slipped by INR 50/t to INR 6,850/t. Prices remained at four-year lows, with limited buying interest due to the monsoon keeping trade volumes thin.

South African RB2 export offers dropped by $2.5/t w-o-w to $71/t FOB, while RB3 remained stable at $60/t FOB. Export sentiments weakened due to slow offtake in Asian markets and falling portside realisations in India. Sellers faced pressure to reduce offers further amid muted global demand.

Outlook

South African coal prices in India have recently dropped to their lowest in four years, with RB2 assessed at INR 7,900/t exw-Gangavaram. Meanwhile, domestic coal is gaining preference, as evident from auction results showing healthy offtake despite steady prices. Therefore, despite the lower prices, ongoing monsoon and improved availability of domestic material may further dampen appetite for imports. As a result, South African coal shipments to India could face headwinds in the coming month, with buyers likely to remain cautious and prioritise domestic procurement over fresh import bookings.

*Correction: The sentence mentioning five-month high export volumes has been corrected.