South Africa non-coking coal exports fall m-o-m in Apr'26 on weaker Indian demand

• Indian imports decline sharply on weak sponge iron demand
  
  
• Domestic coal preference continues to pressure import demand
  
  

South African non-coking coal exports declined 23.4% m-o-m to 5.02 million tonnes (mnt) in April 2026 from 6.55 mnt in March, reflecting weaker buying interest from key Asian markets, especially India. On a y-o-y basis, exports were also lower by 4.2% compared with 5.24 mnt in April 2025, indicating continued pressure on seaborne demand amid soft downstream market conditions.

Indian imports decline sharply

India remained the largest destination for South African non-coking coal in April at 1.97 mnt. However, volumes dropped sharply by 43.4% m-o-m from 3.48 mnt in March and were also down 40.7% y-o-y compared with 3.32 mnt in April 2025.

Market participants indicated that Indian buyers reduced import bookings amid weak sponge iron demand, lower steel margins, and better availability of domestic coal.

Weak sponge demand, lower domestic prices pressure imports

Indian sponge iron and steel demand weakened further during April and early May, reducing imported coal procurement across major consuming regions. PDRI DAP-Durgapur prices declined sharply to INR 24,900/t as on 12 May, while buying activity in finished and semi-finished steel markets remained subdued.

At the same time, domestic non-coking coal prices also corrected by around INR 250-300/t w-o-w on lower premiums in recent SECL auctions and comfortable coal availability. Domestic 5,000 GCV prices eased to nearly INR 6,000/t, while 4,500 GCV prices dropped to around INR 4,300/t, making domestic coal more competitive compared with imported South African cargoes.

However, portside inventories in India continued to surge by 4% w-o-w to 15.14 mnt in week 18, reflecting weak portside South African coal demand. Traders reported that buyers largely stayed away from bulk bookings and continued requirement-based procurement amid expectations of further correction in imported coal prices.

Pakistan, Asian markets weaken

Pakistan imported 0.54 mnt in April, down 34.9% m-o-m from 0.83 mnt in March, though still higher than 0.42 mnt in April 2025. Israel's imports declined to 0.18 mnt from 0.34 mnt, while Taiwan's imports also fell to 0.18 mnt from 0.34 mnt m-o-m.

Japan's imports dropped sharply to 0.06 mnt in April compared with 0.24 mnt in March and broadly stable against 0.07 mnt in April 2025, highlighting continued weak Northeast Asian demand.

Meanwhile, a significant portion of April cargoes remained categorised under unspecified destinations at 1.61 mnt, indicating cargoes still in transit or awaiting final discharge confirmation.

Outlook

South African non-coking coal exports may remain under pressure in the near term as Indian buyers continue preferring domestic coal amid weak downstream demand and firm international prices.