Pakistan: Thermal coal imports surge as LNG remains scarce

• Q1 thermal coal imports at 2.1 mnt - up around 100% year-on-year
  
  
• South African supplies jump to 1.6 mnt - from 590,000 t in Q1 2025
  
  
• H1 2026 forecast raised to 5.4 mnt - up 3 mnt year-on-year
  
  

Pakistan's thermal coal imports more than doubled in the first quarter of 2026, driven by severe LNG supply disruptions stemming from the Middle East conflict. March imports stood at 0.87 million tonnes, up from 740,000 tonnes in February and sharply higher than the 390,000 tonnes recorded in March 2025.

Total Q1 2026 imports reached 2.1 million tonnes, compared with just 1.1 million tonnes in the same period last year.

South Africa, Indonesia lead the charge

South Africa emerged as the primary beneficiary of Pakistan's import surge. Supplies from South Africa reached 600,000 tonnes in March, up from 580,000 tonnes in February and 230,000 tonnes in March 2025. For the full quarter, South African deliveries jumped to 1.6 million tonnes, up from just 590,000 tonnes in Q1 2025.

Indonesian supplies also rose sharply, reaching 370,000 tonnes in Q1 2026, up from 120,000 tonnes in the same period last year.

LNG crunch drives coal switch

The surge in coal imports is a direct consequence of the Middle East conflict, which has disrupted LNG flows into Pakistan. The country faces a daily electricity shortfall of about 4,000 MW, with approximately 3,000 MW attributed to the closure of regasified LNG-fired power plants.

Pakistan has floated tenders for spot LNG cargoes for the first time since 2023, but spot prices remain elevated at $22-25/MMBtu compared with contract prices of around $16/MMBtu. Coal has emerged as the most viable short-term alternative.

Outlook

The H1 2026 import forecast has been revised upward to 5.4 million tonnes, representing a year-on-year increase of 3 million tonnes. This suggests continued strength in Pakistan's coal demand through the second quarter.

South African and Indonesian suppliers are the primary beneficiaries of this trend. However, any easing of the Middle East conflict or resumption of normal LNG flows could reverse the current trajectory.