Pakistan: Ferrous scrap imports rise over 35% y-o-y in CY25 on duty relief, lower global prices

• Lower global shredded prices improve import competitiveness
  
  
• UAE and UK remain Pakistan's largest scrap suppliers
  
  
• Housing initiatives expected to support long steel consumption
  
  

Morning Brief: Pakistan's ferrous scrap imports increased by 37% y-o-y to 3.6 million tonnes (mnt) in CY'25 compared with 2.62 mnt in CY'24, as per latest BigMint data. On a y-o-y basis, December imports surged 95%, indicating a significant year-end rebound in scrap arrivals when tax exemptions and policy relief on imported scrap improve the economics of overseas procurement.

Pakistan's crude steel output declined by 16% y-o-y to 3.62 mnt in CY'25 compared with 4.30 mnt in CY'24, reflecting weak demand, liquidity constraints, and operational adjustments across mills.

Country-wise imports

The largest share of Pakistan's scrap imports in CY25 came from the United Arab Emirates at 1.05 mnt, followed by the United Kingdom at 0.96 mnt. Meanwhile, shipments from the United States declined to 0.42 mnt from 0.50 mnt.

Among other suppliers, imports from the Netherlands increased to 0.14 mnt from 0.08 mnt, while the Germany and Sweden recorded slight increases to 0.10 mnt and 0.09 mnt respectively.

Factors supporting imports

Duty and policy relief: Pakistani steel mills typically operated at 30-45% capacity utilisation during most of the year, relying equally on domestic scrap in the first half of the fiscal year when imported scrap was relatively expensive due to duties and currency pressure. Import activity increased after the federal budget announcement, when fiscal incentives improved the economics of imported scrap.

In the FY'26 federal budget, the government provided relief to steelmakers by removing the 3% customs duty on melting scrap grades such as HMS and abolishing the 2% additional customs duty (ACD) on scrap imports. As a result, HMS, shredded and bundled scrap are now effectively imported at 0% customs duty, lowering the landed cost of raw materials and improving margins for steel producers.

This policy change was aimed at reducing input costs and ensuring steady raw material supply for the steel sector, which relies heavily on imported scrap for production.

Supply diversion: Weak demand and liquidity constraints in India, Bangladesh, and parts of the Middle East encouraged exporters to divert cargoes to Pakistan, where mills offered relatively better prices. Stable short-sea freight and steady EU/UK shredded scrap offers also supported consistent bookings into the Pakistani market.

Price competitiveness: Global shredded scrap prices in 2025 were significantly lower than in 2024, making imports more economical. At the same time, elevated domestic scrap prices in Pakistan -- driven by poor collection rates -- pushed mills to rely heavily on imported material.

In CY'25, UK-origin shredded scrap averaged $374/t, down $40/t y-o-y from $414/t in CY'24, reflecting overall price softening. Despite the decline, Pakistan continued to secure comparatively stronger realisations than other regional buyers.

Pakistan also remained the highest payer in Q1 CY26, offering around $10-12/t more than India and $5-6/t more than Bangladesh for shredded scrap.

Government initiatives: Improved construction activity, supported by recent government housing initiatives, has begun to lift demand for steel bars in Pakistan, consequently increasing ferrous scrap import requirements. Market participants noted that policy measures aimed at reviving the housing sector are gradually translating into stronger consumption of long steel products.

A key driver is the Punjab Government's "Apni Chhat Apna Ghar" housing programme, launched to expand affordable housing across the province. The initiative targets construction of up to 500,000 houses over five years for low-income households.

In parallel, the federal government introduced the "Mera Ghar -- Mera Ashiana" housing finance initiative, supervised by the State Bank of Pakistan, which provides subsidised loans to help citizens build or purchase homes. These housing and financing initiatives could gradually strengthen construction activity, indirectly supporting higher billet and rebar production, and consequently increasing ferrous scrap procurement by Pakistani steel mills.

Domestic scrap prices high: Domestic scrap prices remained high at PKR 135,000-140,000/t ($483-501/t), making imported shredded scrap at $360-365/t CFR more competitive. As international prices declined from the beginning of 2025, imports increased steadily. Amid liquidity constraints, mills preferred smaller but consistent containerised cargoes over costlier local scrap.

Outlook

Pakistan's ferrous scrap imports are likely to remain stable in 2026, supported by duty exemptions and competitive global prices. However, weak steel demand, liquidity constraints, and cautious mill operations may limit strong growth. Mills are expected to prefer smaller cargoes, with prices staying firm mainly due to supply factors rather than demand recovery.