LME copper stays range-bound amid Iran-US tensions; firm demand caps downside

• Prices hold near recent highs despite macro headwinds
  
  
• Supply risks and energy costs offset pressure from strong dollar and weak demand
  
  

Copper prices on the London Metal Exchange remained muted in the week ended April 24, reflecting a market caught between geopolitical uncertainty and macroeconomic pressures. The w-o-w copper price rose to $13,290 per tonne on April 24 from $13,149 per tonne on April 17, marking a marginal week-on-week gain of $141 per tonne. Despite the limited movement, prices continued to hover near recent highs, indicating underlying firmness in the market.

The week saw copper trade in a narrow band, with the average price settling around $13,203 per tonne. Market participants largely adopted a cautious stance as tensions between Iran and the United States remained unresolved, keeping risk sentiment fragile but not disruptive enough to trigger sharp price swings.

Global copper supply to expand steadily through 2027

Global copper mine production is projected to reach 24 mnt in 2026, reflecting 1.6% growth, and is expected to rise further to approximately 26 mnt in 2027, marking a 2.3% increase, according to the International Copper Study Group (ICSG). Chile is expected to retain its position as the largest global producer, followed by key contributors such as the Democratic Republic of Congo and Peru.

Global refined copper production is forecast to reach around 30.44 mnt in 2026, registering very marginal growth of 0.4%, primarily due to constrained concentrate availability. However, refined output is expected to rebound to approximately 32.0 mnt in 2027, reflecting a 3% increase, driven by improved raw material availability and expansion in secondary production.

Chemaf acquisition to revive Congo copper operations by 2027

A US-based investment firm, Virtus Minerals, along with India's Lloyds Metals & Energy, has acquired Congo-based Chemaf, a mid-sized copper-cobalt producer, in a leveraged deal involving a $30 million upfront payment and the assumption of nearly $900 million in debt. The joint venture plans to restart operations by January 2027, beginning with a temporary shutdown of its Lubumbashi facility for up to 2 months maintenance and expansion.

Operations are planned to restart simultaneously across key sites in Lubumbashi and Kolwezi, including the previously stalled Mutoshi Project. The phased ramp-up across these assets is aimed at streamlining production and achieving full operational capacity by January 2027.

Outlook

Market participants stated that there is a lot of uncertainty in the secondary copper market, shortage of material continue to persist. In the imported segment, firm overseas offers, currency volatility, and freight uncertainties may continue to restrict fresh bookings. Global copper prices will remain sensitive to sulphuric acid-related supply concerns and exchange inventory movements, keeping the domestic market biased sideways to mildly firm in the near term.