LME base metals prices drift lower; geopolitical stress weighs on metal markets

• Copper retreat continues as rising oil prices fuel inflation fears
  
  
• Global recycled base metals output topped 59 million t in 2025
  
  

Base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) traded lower as of close on 15 May 2026, with declines across all major non-ferrous metals amid weaker global market sentiment. Copper recorded the sharpest decline among major metals, falling 2.75% to $13,555/t, followed by aluminium, which dropped 2.58% to $3,563/t. Nickel declined 2.13% to $18,497/t, while lead and zinc fell 1.81% and 1.41% to settle at $1,979/t and $3,534/t, respectively. The broader non-ferrous complex reflected cautious to weak market sentiment.

On the inventory side, LME stocks largely declined across major metals, indicating continued drawdowns in exchange inventories. Aluminium inventories fell 0.65% to 346,500 t, while zinc stocks declined 0.54% to 110,275 t. Copper inventories slipped 0.38% to 397,050 t, while lead stocks edged lower by 0.02% to 265,250 t. Nickel inventories remained largely stable at 275,778 t, reflecting relatively balanced near-term supply conditions across the complex.

Domestic market overview

India's non-ferrous scrap market showed a mixed d-o-d trend. Aluminium Tense scrap (loose) prices remained largely stable, with ex-Delhi prices unchanged at INR 304,000/t, while ex-Chennai prices increased by INR 1,000/t or 0.3% to INR 312,000/t, supported by steady domestic sentiment and balanced spot buying activity.

Meanwhile, copper armature scrap (Cu 99%), ex-Delhi, declined by INR 18,000/t or 1.5% d-o-d to INR 1,192,000/t from INR 1,210,000/t, reflecting weaker global copper sentiment and cautious downstream buying activity.

Other market updates

Oil prices climb after UAE nuclear facility drone attack

Global oil prices rose more than 1% on 18 May 2026, with Brent crude climbing above $111/bbl and WTI crossing $103/bbl after a drone attack targeted the UAE's Barakah nuclear power plant amid escalating Middle East tensions. Concerns over potential supply disruptions and prolonged instability around the Strait of Hormuz continued supporting bullish energy market sentiment.

Market participants remained cautious as stalled diplomatic efforts surrounding the Iran conflict, rising geopolitical risks and uncertainty over Gulf energy infrastructure continued tightening supply concerns across global oil markets. Analysts noted that renewed attacks on critical regional infrastructure could further increase crude price volatility in the near term.

Iran conflict costs global firms over $25 billion

The ongoing Iran conflict has reportedly saddled global companies with losses exceeding $25 billion amid surging energy prices, disrupted supply chains and continued trade bottlenecks across key shipping routes, particularly the Strait of Hormuz. Aviation, consumer goods, automotive and industrial sectors remained among the most impacted, with higher fuel costs and raw material disruptions weighing on operating margins.

Market participants noted that prolonged geopolitical tensions and continued energy market volatility are increasing inflationary pressure globally, while forcing companies to raise prices, reduce production and delay investment decisions. Analysts warned that sustained disruptions across Middle East trade and energy flows could further intensify cost pressures and weaken broader global economic sentiment in the near term.

Copper retreat deepens amid inflation concerns

Copper prices extended losses on 18 May 2026 as stalled US-Iran negotiations and rising oil prices fuelled broader inflation concerns across global commodity markets. Weaker-than-expected Chinese economic data and fears of prolonged higher interest rates also weighed on industrial metals sentiment, pressuring copper prices lower after the recent rally toward record highs.

Market participants noted that rising energy costs and continued geopolitical uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz may increase inflationary pressure globally, potentially slowing manufacturing demand and broader industrial activity. However, tight concentrate supply and low treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) continued providing underlying support to the copper market despite the recent correction.

Global recycled base metals output rises 5.6% in 2025

Global recycled base metals output increased by 5.6% y-o-y to around 59.2 million t in 2025, supported by capacity expansion across China, India and Southeast Asia, according to the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (CNIA).

China remained the largest producer with output of 20.57 million t, accounting for 34.7% of global recycled metal production. Recycled metals, including copper, aluminium, lead and zinc, accounted for around 34% of total global non-ferrous output, while cumulative savings in primary mineral resources reached nearly 1.2 billion t.

The report also highlighted strong growth in recycling of battery-related metals such as nickel, cobalt and lithium, supported by rising demand from the global new energy sector.