LME base metals diverge d-o-d with zinc leading upside momentum

• EU carbon rules slash India aluminium shipments 42% y-o-y
  
  
• Iran-Hormuz tensions intensify global energy supply concerns
  
  

Base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) showed a mixed trend on 12 May 2026, with gains in copper, zinc, and lead offset by declines in aluminium and nickel. Zinc recorded the strongest gain among major metals, rising 1.48% to $3,532/t, followed by copper, which increased 0.56% to $14,021/t. Lead also edged up 0.48% to $1,997/t, while aluminium and nickel declined by 0.49% and 1.56% to settle at $3,562/t and $18,952/t, respectively. The overall trend reflected cautious but supported sentiment across the non-ferrous complex.

On the inventory side, LME stocks witnessed marginal fluctuations across major metals. Copper inventories increased by 0.40% to 401,000 t, while lead stocks edged up 0.06% to 265,925 t. In contrast, aluminium inventories declined by 0.68% to 353,350 t, nickel stocks fell 0.34% to 276,840 t, and zinc inventories slipped 0.27% to 110,300 t, reflecting balanced near-term supply conditions across the complex.

Domestic market overview

India's non-ferrous scrap market showed a firm d-o-d trend. Aluminium tense scrap (loose) prices increased marginally, with ex-Delhi prices rising by INR 500/t or 0.2% to INR 298,000/t and ex-Chennai prices increasing by INR 1,500/t or 0.5% to INR 310,000/t, supported by stable demand and firm domestic sentiment.

Meanwhile, copper armature scrap (Cu 99%), ex-Delhi, increased by INR 20,000/t or 1.7% to INR 1,190,000/t, supported by stronger global copper prices and improved buying interest.

Other market updates

CBAM weighs on India's aluminium shipments

India's unwrought aluminium exports to the EU declined by 41.7% y-o-y to 10,874.72 t in January 2026, reflecting the growing impact of the EUs Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) on export competitiveness. Rising carbon compliance costs have increased pricing pressure on Indian producers and reduced shipment volumes to Europe.

Industry participants are now pushing for faster implementation of India's Carbon Credit Trading Scheme (CCTS), which is expected to improve carbon compliance readiness and support long-term export competitiveness in global markets.

Oil prices slip amid fragile Iran ceasefire, China summit focus

Global crude oil prices edged lower on 13 May after a three-session rally, as investors monitored the fragile Iran ceasefire and awaited developments from the high-level Trump-Xi summit in China. Brent crude declined around 1.1% to $106.55/bbl, while WTI slipped 1.2% to $101.02/bbl, reflecting cautious market sentiment despite ongoing Middle East supply concerns.

Market volatility remained elevated amid continued uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and potential disruptions to global oil flows. However, declining US crude inventories and persistent geopolitical risks continued to provide underlying support to the energy complex

Iraq, Pakistan sign Iran energy transit deals amid Hormuz tensions

Iraq and Pakistan have signed separate energy transit agreements with Iran to secure crude oil and LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz amid ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Gulf region. The move highlights growing concerns over regional energy security and disrupted shipping flows.

The Strait of Hormuz, which handles nearly 20% of global oil and LNG trade, continues to witness elevated volatility following the US-Iran conflict and tighter maritime controls by Tehran, supporting global energy prices and increasing logistical uncertainty across the market.