LME aluminium inches up w-o-w supported by inventory outflows, China PMI

• LME inventories decline 1.8%
  
  
• China PMI signals demand recovery
  
  

Benchmark aluminium prices on the LME inched up slightly by 1% in the week ended 13 February 2026. Aluminium prices edged higher, supported by tightening global supply conditions and improving demand signals from China, while bullish forecasts further strengthened overall market sentiment.

Pricing, inventory trends

LME aluminium prices averaged $3,100/t in the week ended 14 February, up $29/t or 1% w-o-w. Prices opened the week at around $3,108/t and strengthened mid-week, reaching $3,146/t, and closed the week at $3,028/t.

Meanwhile, LME aluminium inventories fell 1.8%, reaching at 485,360 t w-o-w from 494,295 t in the week.

Factors impacting prices

Aluminium rose w-o-w, supported by tightening global supply and improving demand indicators. Goldman Sachs raised its first-half price forecast to $3,150/t, citing low global inventories and power constraints affecting new Indonesian smelters. Production disruptions in Iceland, Mozambique and Australia further tightened near-term availability. On the demand side, China's manufacturing PMI climbed to 50.3, signalling expansion, while the PBOC maintained an accommodative monetary stance to support growth. However, rising inventories in China and Japan capped sharper gains.

Outlook

Aluminium prices are expected to remain firm in the upcoming week, supported by tight global supply and constructive demand signals from China. However, rising inventories and record Chinese output could limit further upside. Price movement will likely track macro cues, inventory trends and developments in power availability at key smelting hubs.