Jeera prices consolidate as fresh arrivals offset tight crop outlook

• Acreage down 14.34% YoY; 2026 output projected at 90-92 lakh bags versus 1.10 crore last year
  
  
• Fresh arrivals and comfortable stocks cap rally, but short covering and pest risks cushion fall
  
  

As of 18 February 2026, NCDEX jeera futures settled near INR 22,345 per quintal, gaining around 0.4% on the day after recent weakness. In the physical market, Unjha spot prices were reported close to INR 22,453 per quintal, reflecting marginal softness but overall stability. The contract has entered a consolidation phase, with prices fluctuating in a narrow band as traders balance seasonal arrivals against tighter production estimates. Open interest declined by 4.85%, indicating short covering at lower levels rather than aggressive fresh buying.

The underlying support in the market comes from reduced sowing and emerging crop risks. Gujarat's jeera acreage for the 2025-26 season stands at 4.08 lakh hectares, down 14.34% year-on-year, marking one of the slowest sowing paces in recent years. National production is currently estimated at 90-92 lakh bags, sharply lower than last year's 1.10 crore bags. Gujarat output is projected at 42-45 lakh bags, while Rajasthan is estimated at 48-50 lakh bags. Additionally, aphid infestations have been reported in parts of Rajasthan, raising concerns over yield realization during the critical crop development phase in February-March. Any adverse weather conditions during this period could further tighten supply projections.

At the same time, upside momentum remains limited due to increasing supply flow. Fresh crop arrivals have begun in select mandis of Gujarat and Rajasthan and are expected to gain pace from March onwards. Pipeline stocks are still considered comfortable, with farmers estimated to be holding around 20 lakh bags. A significant carry-forward stock is likely, which is discouraging aggressive stockist participation at current price levels.

On the demand side, export buying remains cautious and price sensitive. India's jeera exports during April-November 2025 declined by 10.3% year-on-year, although November shipments showed improvement compared to the previous year. Buying interest from Gulf countries and China persists but remains moderate. Meanwhile, geopolitical disruptions in Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan have tightened global supply, offering medium-term support to Indian cumin. However, relatively firm Indian prices continue to limit aggressive overseas procurement.

Technically, the market remains range-bound with mild positive undertones. Immediate support is seen at INR 21,950 followed by INR 21,550, while resistance is placed at INR 22,620 and INR 22,890. A sustained move above the upper resistance band may trigger further short covering, whereas a break below support could renew selling pressure.

In the near term, increasing arrivals through March may keep jeera under mild pressure. However, lower acreage, pest-related risks, and tighter global output suggest limited structural downside at current levels. The market is likely to remain in consolidation mode unless a clear trigger emerges from weather developments or export demand revival.