Indonesia: Thermal coal exports inch down in May'26 despite active Chinese imports

• China imports surge 36% m-o-m
  
  
• East Kalimantan leads export volumes
  
  

Indonesia's coal exports stood at 28.32 million tonnes (mnt) in May'26, down 1.1% month-on-month (m-o-m) from 28.63 mnt in Apr'26 and 11.4% lower year-on-year (y-o-y) compared with 31.98 mnt in May'25, according to BigMint data. Ongoing uncertainties on export restrictions limited export volumes. The Indonesian government is set to introduce a new regulatory framework aimed at centralising natural resource (SDA) exports under State-Owned Enterprises (BUMN), however later it was announced that it will come into effect in Jan'27.

The monthly decline came amid weaker shipments to India, the Philippines and South Korea. However, a sharp increase in exports to China helped limit the overall drop.

China-led demand cushions decline in key Asian markets

China remained the largest importer of Indonesian coal during the month, with imports rising to 7.05 mnt in May'26 from 5.18 mnt in Apr'26, reflecting a 36.1% m-o-m increase. On an annual basis, volumes were up 39.7% from 5.05 mnt recorded in May'25. low-calorific Indonesian coal continued to attract steady demand from China and Vietnam, buying appetite for mid- to high-calorific cargoes remained restrained as elevated premiums and tight availability discouraged spot purchases.

In contrast, exports to India declined to 6.41 mnt in May'26, down 19.4% m-o-m from 7.95 mnt in Apr'26 and 35.9% lower y-o-y against 10 mnt shipped in May'25. India remained the second-largest destination for Indonesian coal despite the decline. India continued to be the weakest link in regional demand. Power plant coal inventories remained more than 17 days of consumption, reducing the urgency for spot purchases. Imported coal buyers largely remained on the sidelines, with market participants indicating that meaningful buying interest for Indonesian 4,200 GAR coal may only re-emerge at materially lower price levels.

Shipments to the Philippines fell to 2.66 mnt, down 18.4% m-o-m, while exports to South Korea slipped 4.8% to 1.18 mnt. Malaysia recorded a positive trend, with imports increasing 9.1% m-o-m to 2.15 mnt, while exports to Japan rose 7.7% to 1.26 mnt. Cargoes to other destinations stood at 7.61 mnt, down 3.2% m-o-m.

East Kalimantan continues to dominate exports

Among exporting regions, East Kalimantan remained the largest contributor, accounting for 13.05 mnt of shipments in May'26. However, exports from the region declined 3.8% m-o-m and were 15.4% lower y-o-y.

South Kalimantan was the second-largest exporting region, with shipments increasing 2.4% m-o-m to 10.24 mnt, although volumes remained 4.2% lower than a year earlier.

Exports from Sumatra fell to 3.72 mnt, down 12.1% m-o-m and 14.3% y-o-y. Meanwhile, North Kalimantan recorded the strongest monthly growth among all regions, with shipments rising 59% m-o-m to 1.32 mnt from 0.83 mnt in Apr'26. Despite the increase, exports were still 12.9% lower y-o-y.

Mixed performance across major loading ports

At the port level, Taboneo remained the largest coal loading hub, handling 4.93 mnt in May'26. Volumes declined 7.3% m-o-m from 5.32 mnt in Apr'26 and were 27.6% lower y-o-y.

Exports through Samarinda fell 7.6% m-o-m to 3.54 mnt, while Balikpapan recorded a steeper decline of 19.1% m-o-m, with shipments reaching 1.99 mnt.

In contrast, Bunati posted an 8.9% m-o-m increase to 4.05 mnt and registered the strongest annual growth among major ports, with volumes up 62.1% y-o-y. Muara Pantai recorded the highest monthly growth rate, with shipments rising 39.9% m-o-m to 2.28 mnt.

Outlook

The Asian thermal coal market is increasingly moving at two speeds. Low-CV Indonesian coal continues to benefit from stable Chinese and Vietnamese demand, while higher-CV cargoes face growing buyer resistance as premiums outpace affordability.

For now, tight supply continues to support sellers. But unless India returns meaningfully to the market or China expands buying further, higher-priced segments may struggle to sustain recent gains.