India's non-coking coal imports continue falling in Jan-Apr'26 as buyers favour domestic supply

• Indonesian imports fall 10% y-o-y on surging renewable generation
  
  
• Elevated domestic inventories, cheaper local coal limit import appetite
  
  
• US imports rise 10% as cement sector shifts away from costly petcoke
  
  

Morning Brief: India's non-coking coal imports fell 7.4% y-o-y to 51.34 million tonnes (mnt) in January-April 2026, according to BigMint data. Imports fell 11% y-o-y in April 2026 but rose by a minor 4% m-o-m to 14.2 mnt, a seven-month high, indicating that concerns over summer heatwaves and gas supply disruptions have not translated into a sizeable spike in India's coal imports.

The slight m-o-m increase was driven largely by delayed arrivals of previously booked cargoes and seasonal restocking ahead of peak summer power demand. However, elevated international coal prices, high freights, and strong domestic coal availability continued to limit aggressive import buying and made buyers prefer local material.

Notably, imports had fallen 6% y-o-y in CY'25 as well, reflecting structurally weak imported coal demand amid ample domestic supply.

Factors influencing India's thermal coal imports in Jan-Apr'26

Indonesian coal imports fall 10% y-o-y: Indonesian non-coking coal imports declined 10% y-o-y to 30 mnt, indicating generally subdued demand from the power sector despite concerns over a scorching summer and a below-normal monsoon due to an emerging El Nino event.

Although rising concerns around India's energy security prompted the government to direct imported coal-based power plants to run at full capacity over April-June, a significant impact on imports has not been observed as of yet.

Moreover, Indonesian coal prices have steadily increased due to concerns around tight supply due to lower production quotas and surging freights due to the US-Iran conflict. Prices of 4200 GAR coal were assessed at an average of $62.5/t in January and $64.5/t in February and then rose sharply to $72.6/t in March and $74.75/t in April, all CNF Vizag.

As per reports, around production work plans of around 580 mnt have been approved, a substantial decline from Indonesia's CY'25 production volume of 790 mnt. Uncertainty around production plans and domestic sales also made exporters unwilling to offer material.

Renewable energy generation limits coal-fired output: In January-April 2026, India's power consumption climbed up by 2.6% y-o-y to 578 billion units. While power generation increased in tandem, it was non-fossil fuel-based sources that drove the rise.

To illustrate, in January-March 2026, India's power generation increased 3% y-o-y to 464 billion units, but coal and lignite-based generation dipped by 1% as solar output surged 24% and wind rose 11%, as per data from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA).

Moreover, in April 2026, although power generation increased by a steeper 5.3% y-o-y, coal-based output inched up by 2.4% and supply from renewable sources climbed up by a robust 22%.

Domestic production dips y-o-y but supply remains stable: Domestic coal production fell slightly by 1.6% y-o-y, while dispatches decreased by 1.2% during January-April 2026. Despite this, domestic coal availability remained sufficient, and consumers turned to local material amid competitive prices.

In April 2026, while coal stocks at power plants fell by 5.31 mnt (9%) to 53.71 over the month, pithead regions (eastern and central India, near coalfields) remained comfortable with stocks at 120-130% of normative levels.

At thermal power plants, domestic coal accounted for 95.3% of receipts (68.38 mnt of 71.74 mnt) and 94.0% of consumption (72.38 mnt of 76.96 mnt). The stock decline from domestic coal was 4.32 mnt, or 81% of the total drawdown. Imported coal volumes remained marginal at 3.35 mnt receipts and 4.58 mnt consumption.

South African imports rise 4% y-o-y on sponge iron production growth: South African imports rose 4% y-o-y to 12.37 mnt, driven by a 9% growth in sponge iron production. However, the differing growth rates suggest that sponge iron producers increasingly switched to domestic coal as sponge iron prices weakened throughout April.

South African coal imports fell 8.4% m-o-m and 2.1% y-o-y to 3.3 mnt in April. The decline followed a sharp rise in imported coal costs during late February and March. Elevated FOB prices from the Richards Bay Coal Terminal, surging freights, and geopolitical tensions linked to the US-Iran conflict significantly increased landed coal prices into India.

Although international coal prices corrected later in April -- RB3 (4800 NAR) fell to an average of $74/t FOB Richards Bay from $79/t -- the earlier slowdown in bookings translated into lower South African cargo arrivals during the month.

US coal imports rise 10% y-o-y on cement demand: US thermal coal imports increased 10% y-o-y to 4.35 mnt in January-April, though shipments were lower by 11% in April.

The robust increase in US cargo arrivals reflects purchases by cement manufacturers seeking alternatives to expensive petroleum coke. Elevated petcoke prices and tighter availability encouraged cement producers to increase the use of imported high-calorific value thermal coal (especially from the US) and domestic coal blends.

Outlook

BigMint expects India's thermal coal imports to remain largely stable in May despite seasonal summer demand support.

Power demand is expected to rise during April-June amid higher temperatures and a low demand base. However, elevated domestic coal inventories, improving domestic supply availability, and continued renewable energy growth are likely to limit any substantial rise in imports.

International coal prices also remain elevated, particularly for South African and Indonesian cargoes, which may continue discouraging aggressive spot market buying by Indian utilities and industrial consumers.