Indian HRC export activity subdued as deals to EU, Middle East remain absent

• HRC offers to EU at around $700/t CFR; no bookings reported
  
  
• Elevated shipping risks, freight volatility weigh on exports
  
  

Indian HRC export activity remained subdued during the week 7-14 April 2026, as re-escalating geopolitical tensions and persistent disruptions across key maritime routes continued to weigh on trade flows. Heightened security risks along critical corridors such as the Red Sea-Suez Canal and the Strait of Hormuz led to widespread vessel diversions, longer transit times, and a sharp increase in freight and war-risk insurance costs, significantly undermining export competitiveness across major destinations.

HRC exports to Europe: Indian HRC export offers to the EU stood at around $700/t CFR Antwerp, up by $15/t from $685/t reported a week earlier. However, no bookings were concluded at these levels within the assessment window.

Ongoing security risks across key maritime routes continue to disrupt trade flows, with vessels increasingly rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope instead of the Red Sea-Suez Canal corridor, extending transit times by 15-20 days. This has significantly increased freight and war-risk insurance costs, keeping market participants in a cautious, wait-and-watch mode.

Market sentiment is further weighed down by CBAM-related cost implications and a lack of clarity on country-specific quotas under the upcoming safeguard measures effective 1 July 2026.

India's HRC quota under Category 1A, totalling approximately 225,305 metric tonnes (t), has been fully exhausted shortly after the opening of the new quota period on 1 April. This early exhaustion comes ahead of the anticipated safeguard revisions effective 1 July, which are expected to include a near 50% reduction in quota volumes and an increase in out-of-quota duty to 50% (from the current 25%).

Meanwhile, the first quarterly CBAM price has been set at EUR 75.36/t CO2e, providing some cost visibility to market participants. However, uncertainty persists regarding the transition to actual emissions reporting, particularly amid concerns over delays in the verification process.

HRC exports to Middle East: Indian HRC export offers to the Middle East remained absent w-o-w, as escalating geopolitical tensions and persistent security risks across key shipping corridors continued to disrupt trade flows. The Strait of Hormuz, which handles a significant share of global oil and LNG trade, has emerged as a major flashpoint, with rising missile and drone threats, along with attacks on merchant vessels, severely impacting shipping operations. This has led to a sharp increase in freight rates and war-risk insurance premiums, effectively eroding export viability.

Shipping lines and insurers have adopted a cautious stance, with several carriers suspending operations in high-risk areas altogether. As a result, trade flows have been materially affected, with freight uncertainty and limited near-term visibility weighing heavily on market sentiment.

A Middle-East based source said that "the ongoing disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz have significantly impacted cargo movements, particularly to and from the UAE, with no visible improvement so far. The route remains largely inaccessible, restricting both inbound and outbound shipments and severely constraining regional trade flows. Market activity has come to a standstill, leading to a suspension of most offers to the Middle East."

Meanwhile, SHFE futures, October 2026 HRC contract remained largely stable w-o-w at around RMB 3,279/t ($481/t) on 14 April, reflecting relatively cautious futures sentiment.

Outlook

Indian HRC export activity is expected to remain muted in the near term, as ongoing geopolitical tensions and persistent disruptions across key maritime routes continue to elevate freight costs, extend transit times, and reduce trade visibility. Overall sentiment is likely to remain cautious, with market participants adopting a wait-and-watch approach until shipping conditions stabilise and geopolitical uncertainties ease.