Indian HRC export activity remains subdued amid lack of deals to EU, Middle East

• EU's revised safeguard measures keep buyers cautious
  
  
• Heightened shipping risks weigh on exports to Middle East
  
  

Indian HRC export activity remained subdued over 22-28 April 2026, with limited activity heard across key overseas markets, including the EU and the Middle East. While offers to Europe held steady on a w-o-w basis, the lack of concluded deals and the continued absence of offers to the Middle East reflect cautious sentiment among market participants. Regulatory uncertainty in Europe, coupled with persistent logistical disruptions across key shipping routes, continued to weigh on trade flows, keeping export momentum muted.

HRC exports to Europe: Indian HRC export offers to the EU remained stable w-o-w at around $705/t CFR Antwerp. However, no bookings were heard at these levels within the assessment window, reflecting cautious buyer sentiment.

The muted activity is largely driven by uncertainty in the import market, as material booked now would arrive for July customs clearance, when the EU's revised safeguard measures are set to take effect, exposing buyers to unclear cost implications.

A key concern remains the lack of clarity around country-specific quota allocations. Under the new framework, the total annual tariff-rate quota (TRQ) is set at around 18.35 million tonnes (mnt). While imports within the quota will remain duty-free, volumes exceeding it will attract a significantly higher 50% tariff, compared to the earlier 25%. This has heightened concerns over potential duty exposure, dampening interest in overseas purchases.

Additional cost pressures from the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), along with compliance requirements such as "melt and pour", are further weighing on sentiment and complicating procurement decisions.

Meanwhile, disruptions in global shipping routes continue to add to market unease. Security risks in the Red Sea region have forced vessels to reroute via the Cape of Good Hope, extending transit times by 15-20 days and increasing freight and war-risk insurance costs.

HRC exports to Middle East: Indian HRC export offers to the Middle East remained absent w-o-w, as ongoing geopolitical tensions and heightened security risks across key shipping corridors, particularly the Strait of Hormuz, kept the route largely inaccessible and continued to disrupt trade flows. Elevated freights and rising war-risk insurance premiums further added to the pressure, undermining export viability.

Shipping lines and insurers adopted an increasingly cautious stance, with several carriers suspending operations in high-risk areas. Consequently, cargo movement has been significantly impacted, while limited near-term visibility continues to weigh on overall market sentiment.

A Middle East-based source indicated, "Ongoing disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz have severely disrupted shipments, particularly to and from the UAE, with no visible improvement so far. The route remains largely inaccessible, constraining both inbound and outbound shipments and bringing regional trade activity to a near standstill. Consequently, most export offers to the region have been suspended."

Outlook

Indian HRC export activity is expected to remain subdued in the coming week. In Europe, buying interest is likely to stay cautious amid limited clarity on revised safeguard measures, particularly regarding country-specific quotas and associated cost implications. In the Middle East, exports are expected to continue facing disruptions until geopolitical tensions ease. Overall, export momentum is likely to remain muted, with any meaningful recovery dependent on improved policy clarity and easing logistical constraints.