India: Trade-level HRC prices hit 28-month high amid geopolitical tensions

• Increasing energy, freight costs lead to panic buying
  
  
• Material availability remains tight at distributor level
  
  

Trade-level prices of hot-rolled coils (HRC) in India remained firm or increased across key regions, reaching a 28-month high, with HRC prices assessed in the range of INR 53,000-56,200/t ($576-610/t) and cold-rolled coil (CRC) prices assessed at INR 58,100-63,500/t ($632-690/t).

BigMint's benchmark assessment (bi-weekly) for HRC (IS2062, Gr E250, 2.5-8 mm/CTL) prices surged by INR 1,000/t ($11/t) w-o-w to INR 55,500/t ($603/t) on 10 March against INR 54,500/t ($592/t) in the same period last week.

CRC (IS513, Gr O, 0.9 mm/CTL) prices stood at INR 61,500/t ($668/t), climbing up by INR 1,000/t ($11/t) w-o-w against INR 60,500/t ($657/t) on Tuesday. These prices are ex-Mumbai for the distributor-to-dealer segment and exclude 18% GST.

Market updates

Indian trade-level HRC prices witnessed a sharp upward movement this week amid rising geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel, which has created significant uncertainty across global commodity markets. Increasing freight costs and surging energy prices, linked to the ongoing conflict, have intensified panic buying across segments of the market.

As a result, traders and distributors are attempting to secure inventory ahead of potential supply chain disruptions, pushing HRC prices to higher levels compared to the previous week.

At the distributor level, market participants highlighted that material availability remains tight, which has further supported the upward price momentum. However, despite firm prices, underlying demand remains slightly slow to moderate across key consuming sectors.

A market participant informed BigMint, "Liquidity will be a major concern in the coming days. The market appears to be shifting into a phase characterised by firm prices but thin liquidity."

Moreover, industry observers note that if the geopolitical situation continues to escalate, further upward pressure on steel prices could emerge due to higher input costs, particularly for energy and logistics.

Import volumes: India's bulk imports of HRCs touched 18,804 t as of 6 March, based on vessel line-up data. Around 114,944 t of additional cargoes are expected by mid-March.

Export volumes: India's bulk exports of HRCs touched 36,000 t as of 6 March. Around 25,000 t of additional cargoes are in transit.

Outlook

Looking ahead, the Indian HRC market is expected to remain volatile in the short term. While supply tightness and geopolitical risks may keep prices firm, cautious buying and liquidity constraints could limit aggressive procurement activity. Market participants are closely monitoring developments in the Middle East, as any further escalation may continue to impact global steel supply chains, freight rates and raw material costs.