India steel index drops marginally w-o-w but longs prices show early signs of recovery
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- HRC trade prices drop up to INR 800/t across markets
- Increased HR coils, plates imports weighs on domestic prices
- IF rebar prices witness recovery as trade sentiments improve
Morning Brief: BigMint's flagship India steel composite index continued its downward spiral in the week ending 26 July 2025, although the rate of decline slowed down. The index dropped just 0.1% w-o-w compared to 0.9% the previous week.
Notably, the flat steel index edged down sharply by 1.4% last week which dragged the composite index lower. Long steel prices, however, witnessed a much-awaited recovery: the longs composite index increased 1% w-o-w on improved sentiments in the induction furnace-based steel market.
Analysis of price movements
HRC trade prices fall sharply:Trade-level prices of HRC declined by up to INR 800/tonne (t) w-o-w to INR 48,800-50,600/t ($565-586/t) across markets on weak seasonal demand. CRC prices dropped by INR 500/t w-o-w to INR 54,500-59,000/t ($631-683/t).
The domestic market experienced a significant slowdown in demand, influenced by a generally bearish sentiment and sluggish sales during monsoon. As buyer interest continued to fade, both steel mills and traders were increasingly focused on clearing their existing inventories.
In fact, a source pointed out that to maintain their sales volumes, some mills even considered offering support by reducing prices by INR 2,000-2,500/t, although this could not be confirmed by BigMint.
Buyers, however, remained largely on the sidelines, adopting a wait-and-watch approach. They held out for more definitive market signals before committing to purchases, expecting further price drops.
Import volumes drift higher: Indias bulk imports of HRCs touched 361,505 t as of 19 July, based on vessel line-up data. Around 236,660 t of additional cargo are expected by the first week of August. As of 19 July, import volumes of HR plates reached 30,700 t. This marked a substantial increase compared to June and May, when imports totalled 2,469 t and 14,672 t, respectively.
Based on current vessel line-up data, an additional 2,288 t of HR plates are projected to arrive by the end of July, with another 16,500 t expected in August. High import volumes seemed to be weighing on prices.
HRC export offers decline:Indian HRC export offers to the EU declined amid reduced inquiries during Northern Europes summer holidays, with most buyers staying on the sidelines and waiting for clearer market direction following the holiday season. Moreover, Indian mills withheld offers to the Middle East amid firm domestic demand and competitive offers from other regions.
BF rebar prices under pressure: Trade-level BF rebar prices declined by INR 900/t ($10/t) w-o-w to INR 47,500/t ($549/t) exy-Mumbai on 25 July. Prices are exclusive of GST at 18%. Prices declined w-o-w due to subdued demand across key markets. Weak market sentiment, cautious buying, and monsoon-related disruptions kept buyers on the sidelines. Most market participants remained uncertain about a near-term price recovery.
Some major private steel producers reportedly hiked list prices of rebars by up to INR 1,500/t ($17/t) last week, with rates ranging between INR 48,000-48,500/t ($555-560/t) on landed basis. However, the impact of this hike is yet to be reflected in the trade market.
IF rebar prices on recovery path:IF rebar prices rose by INR 400/t ($5/t) w-o-w to INR 43,700/t ($505/t) exw-Mumbai as on 25 July. Prices rose w-o-w supported by improved trade activity across key markets. The uptick in finished steel prices was supported by a rise in tags of semi-finished steel products such as billets and sponge iron, especially in central India (Raipur and Raigarh).
While buyer response to new offers remained cautious, deals were concluded at previous prices. Additionally, inventory levels remained elevated at 12-15 days.
Outlook
The Indian HRC market is expected to remain under pressure in the short term due to subdued end-user demand, the seasonal slowdown, cautious buyer sentiment, and the uptick in imports of coils and plates. However, an uptrend in Chinese HRC prices offers a ray of hope for Indian manufacturers, potentially improving their competitive positioning.
The longs segment, however, is poised for a recovery. Market participants expect BF trade prices to rebound in the coming days following the improvement observed in the IF rebar segment last week.
India Steel Composite Index
The India Steel Composite Index is assessed on a weekly basis, every Friday at 18:30 IST, as per the weighted average prices based on manufacturing capacity and production.
BigMint considers the Composite Index with the base year being 3 January 2020 (financial year 2019-2020) and the base value as 100. The Composite Index does not give the absolute price but a trend of the market. The Indian steel industry is broadly classified into the BF-BOF and the electric/induction furnace routes. Keeping this broad classification in view, BigMint proposes to release the Composite Index by considering both production routes by manufacturing capacity and the production weighted method to compute the index for India.
