India steel index drops as Iran conflict cools off partially, trade sentiment softens

• HRC, CRC trade prices fall by INR 200-600/t
  
  
• Seaborne coking coal prices weaken further
  
  
• IF rebar prices edge down across regional markets
  
  

Morning Brief: BigMint's India steel composite index, a barometer of the domestic steel market, fell sharply by 1.1% w-o-w, as assessed on 17 April 2026, after a sustained rally, with the index inching up for six consecutive weeks. Steel prices corrected from an elevated level, BigMint understands, with softening raw material prices, the possibility of an end to hostilities in West Asia following a ceasefire, and the prospect of rationalisation of freight and energy costs all pointing to an impending stablisation of market conditions.

Assessment shows that the longs index fell more sharply than flats: 1.4% on-week compared with 0.6% for flats. Prices had started to soften amid Iran ceasefire chatter, as reported last week. Last week, prices decreased for the first time in many weeks and trade sentiments softened; however, geopolitical conflicts still simmer and the market remains on edge.

Highlights of price movements

HRC, CRC trade prices weaken: BigMint's bi-weekly assessment for HRC (IS2062, Gr E250, 2.5-8 mm/CTL) edged down by INR 200/t ($2/t) w-o-w to INR 59,100/t ($639/t) as of 17 April compared to INR 59,300/t ($641/t) on 10 April. CRC (IS513, Gr O, 0.9 mm/CTL) prices were assessed at INR 66,400/t ($718/t) on 17 April, a decrease of INR 600/t ($6/t) w-o-w from INR 67,000/t ($724/t) on 10 April. These assessments are ex-Mumbai for the distributor-to-dealer segment and exclude 18% GST.

Market sentiments were subdued as trading slowed down on weak-to-moderate demand across regions, with buyers purchasing only to meet immediate requirements and avoiding bulk procurement.

Supply conditions remained mixed across regions. In the northern region, a trader informed, "availability in the market remains tight and inventory levels across the chain have been depleting steadily, "though this supply shortage has failed to push prices higher due to the lack of buying momentum."

In the west, older inventory at the trader level has led to a price drop, sources informed BigMint. South India, however, appears relatively better placed, with no supply constraints as of now. "One mill might shut down for maintenance, but that should not affect supplies significantly," a source said. A combination of softening raw material prices and cautious market participation weighed on prices.

Coking coal drops: Coking coal prices dropped by $10/t w-o-w to $178/t FOB Australia on 17 April, adding further pressure on sentiment. Coking coal accounts for around 40-45% of the cost of steel produced via the BF-BOF route.

HRC imports edge lower: Bulk imports of HRCs touched 171,332 t as on 10 April. Around 129,851 t of additional cargoes are expected by early-May. Imports have been edging lower steadily putting pressure on domestic sentiments at a time when the price spread with FTA countries has almost levelled.

IF rebar prices drop: IF rebar trade prices showed volatility and a downward trend w-o-w across major markets. Trading activity remained subdued on weak demand, with buyers restricting purchases to immediate needs. Manufacturers lowered offers or provided discounts to liquidate material. Price volatility continued due to weak booking orders in the finished steel segment. Mills had inventory levels of around 8-12 days.

BF rebar edges down: Trade-level BF-rebar prices (distributor to dealer) edged down by INR 100/t ($1/t) w-o-w to INR 60,400/t ($650/t) exy-Mumbai on 17 April. Buying activity slowed down last week in the trade channel as buyers adopted a cautious approach and opted for need-based buying.

The BF to IF rebar spread in Mumbai widened w-o-w to around INR 8,000-8,500/t ($86-92/t) last week. IF rebar continues to dominate the market, accounting for an estimated 65-70% share.

Outlook

Domestic steel prices are expected to be volatile this week as the market remains in the grip of uncertainty. While mills are not likely to raise prices amid declining coking coal costs, trade prices are also unlikely to show a sharp correction amid tight supplies and maintenance shutdowns, not to mention the possibility of a prolonged conflict in the Middle East. We expect prices to remain rangebound this week.