India: Primary mills hike rebar prices in end-Dec'25; trade-level prices increase in tandem
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- Tier-1 mills' inventories decline by 25-30% in end-Dec'25
- IF rebar prices surge w-o-w on mills' strong order books
Indian Tier-I mills increased rebar prices by up to INR 2,000/tonne (t) ($22/t) during the last week of December 2025, sources informed BigMint. Post-revision, list prices stood at INR 49,000-50,500/t ($545-562/t) on landed basis.
Consequently, trade-level blast furnace (BF) rebar prices increased compared to last week. Prices were heard to range within INR 51,000-52,000/t ($567-578/t) exy-Mumbai this week, as of 31 December, according to sources. Last week, prices had jumped by INR 1,500/t ($17/t) to INR 49,000/t, as recorded on 26 December. Market participants also observed that buying inquiries and trade activities had improved in the last week of December.
In the projects segment, prices hovered around INR 48,500-49,500/t ($540-551/t) on FOR Mumbai basis. Strong bookings last week supported market sentiment and prompted price hikes, with several mills also facing substantial order backlogs for the coming days.
Inventory levels at primary mills continued to decline, falling by around 25-30% in end-December compared to the middle of the month, according to sources.
Update on projects
- L&T won a significant order from the Mumbai Metropolitan Region Development Authority (MMRDA) for electrification, traction, supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA), electro-mechanical (E&M) works and five-year maintenance for Mumbai Metro Line-4.
- L&T won a significant order to build Phase-2 of Hyderabads Greenfield Radial Road, enhancing connectivity through viaducts, service roads, and urban infrastructure.
- Dilip Buildcon has emerged L1 for an INR 1,850 crore 400 kV substation and transmission project in Karnataka under the Tariff-Based Competitive Bidding (TBCB) mode.
- Dilip Buildcon received a letter of acceptance (LOA) from Adani Road Transport for an INR 3,400-crore engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) project to construct the Ganga Path in Bihar.
- Rail Vikas Nigam Limited emerged the L1 bidder for setting up a 200-wagon periodic overhaul (POH) workshop at Kantabanji for East Coast Railway, valued at INR 201.23 crore.
- Afcons achieved CIDCOs first-ever water tunnel breakthrough at Wahal, advancing the Hetawane project and committing to complete it six months ahead of schedule.
Factors behind rise in BF rebar prices
1. IF rebar prices surge w-o-w: IF rebar trade prices strengthened across major Indian markets, supported by healthy demand, strong order bookings, and firm semi-finished steel prices. Improved dispatches reduced inventory pressure, keeping stocks comfortable. While buyers turned cautious at higher levels, steady future orders and lower inventory levels are expected to support prices in the near term.
As of 31 December 2025, IF rebar prices rose by INR 1,700/t ($19/t) to INR 47,400/t ($528/t) exw-Mumbai as compared with last week's closing levels (as recorded on 27 December). Additionally, the near-term outlook remains positive, as mills have secured sufficient bookings for the coming days.
The BF-IF rebar price spread in Mumbai stood at INR 4,000-4,500/t ($44-50/t). IF rebars continue to dominate the Indian market with a 65-70% share.
2. Raw material prices edge up w-o-w: Prices of major raw materials increased w-o-w, supporting BF rebar prices. BigMint's Odisha iron ore fines (Fe 62%) index edged up by INR 50/t ($0.55/t) w-o-w to INR 5,750/t ($64/t) ex-mines on 27 December 2025. Iron ore prices in Odisha remained largely firm w-o-w on 27 December, supported by active demand for fines from steelmakers, while lumps prices fell slightly amid weakening margins in the sponge iron (DRI) segment.
Australian premium hard coking coal (PHCC) prices rose by $2/t w-o-w to $231/t CNF Paradip.
Outlook
Given the improvement in buying activities in the last few days, mills are looking to raise offers again in early-January 2026, which will support trade prices next month.
