India: Portside South African thermal coal prices ease amid rising inventories and weak demand

• Increasing port stocks & weak demand weigh on prices
  
  
• Domestic coal preference limits import demand
  
  

South African thermal coal prices at Indian ports witnessed a week-on-week decline, according to BigMint's assessment, primarily due to subdued demand and increased cargo availability.

Ex-Paradip RB2 (5,500 NAR) prices softened by INR 100-200/t to INR 10,850-10,900/t, while RB3 (4,800 NAR) remained largely stable at around INR 9,800/t. A similar trend was observed at Vizag, where RB2 prices declined by INR 100/t to INR 10,900/t, while RB3 prices held steady at INR 9,800/t.

Buyer resistance caps upward price momentum

Market activity remained inconsistent, with sellers attempting to push for higher offers; however, these were largely rejected by buyers, indicating weak acceptance levels. Persistent resistance at port levels highlights a widening gap between seller expectations and buyer willingness, driven by cautious procurement strategies and limited downstream demand visibility.

Soft global cues and competitive offers weigh on sentiment

Indicative market offers suggest that 5,500 NAR coal was quoted at $ 90-92/t for May-loading and $ 93/t for June on an FOB RBCT basis, while 4,800 NAR was offered at $ 71-72/t FOB. A transaction with an Indian buyer was reportedly concluded at $ 69/t late last week, reflecting pricing pressure.

Additionally, bids for 5,500 NAR were heard at $ 107-108/t CFR against the best offers at $ 112/t, further underlining the subdued buying appetite. Increased cargo availability at ports has led to pressure selling, with bids remaining low amid muted demand conditions.

Weak sponge iron segment dampens consumption

Demand from the sponge iron segment, particularly in the P-DRI DAP-Durgapur market, weakened further. Prices declined by INR 650/t w-o-w to INR 27,150/t, reflecting softness in finished steel markets. This downturn has directly impacted coal consumption, as sponge iron producers adopt a cautious approach to raw material procurement amid compressed margins.

Rising thermal coal port inventories reflect supply-side build-up

India's non-coking coal inventories at major ports increased significantly during Week 16 (12-18 April 2026), rising by 7.24% week-on-week to approximately 14.3 million tonnes. The build-up was driven by higher arrivals at key ports such as Dhamra, Gangavaram, and Tuna, along with active stocking by industrial consumers across cement, steel, and trading sectors. Elevated inventory levels have further reduced urgency for fresh imports.

Domestic coal gains traction amid cost advantage

Domestic coal continued to gain preference among buyers due to its relative cost competitiveness and stable supply. As per BigMint's assessment, domestic thermal coal prices remained steady w-o-w, with 5,000 GCV at INR 6,700/t, while 4,500 GCV saw a marginal increase of INR 50/t to INR 5,350/t.

Strong premiums observed in recent SECL auctions and consistent supply availability have supported domestic pricing. Consequently, large consumers are increasingly shifting towards domestic sourcing or adopting blended procurement strategies to optimise costs and mitigate exposure to volatile international markets.

Outlook

In the near term, imported thermal coal prices are expected to remain weak and range-bound, pressured by elevated port inventories, muted sponge iron demand, and a sustained shift towards domestic coal. While any global supply disruptions may offer brief support, a durable price recovery will hinge on stronger steel demand and inventory liquidation. Until then, the market is likely to stay buyer-driven with limited upside.