India: Portside Indonesian thermal coal market shows divergence amid demand shifts and inventory build-up

• High GAR gains on industrial demand; Low GAR softens on oversupply
  
  
• High port stocks and adequate power plant inventories are restraining price upside
  
  

Indian portside prices of Indonesian-origin thermal coal exhibited a mixed week-on-week trend as of 24 April. Prices of lower GAR coal declined due to ample cargo availability and subdued buying interest, particularly from cost-sensitive segments.

In contrast, higher GAR coal prices firmed up, supported by a seasonal uptick in industrial demand - especially from cement and power sectors - coupled with relatively tighter availability of superior-grade material. This divergence reflects a quality-driven demand pattern emerging in the market.

Selective price movement across key grades

Portside prices across major Indonesian grades saw limited but differentiated movement. As per the latest assessment, 5,000 GAR coal prices increased by around INR 400/t w-o-w, reaching INR 9,700/t at Kandla and INR 9,600/t at Visakhapatnam, driven by improved offtake interest.

Meanwhile, mid-grade 4,200 GAR coal prices remained largely stable at INR 7,650/t at Kandla and INR 7,550/t at Visakhapatnam, indicating balanced demand-supply conditions. In contrast, lower-grade 3,400 GAR coal prices edged down by approximately INR 50/t w-o-w to around INR 5,050/t at Navlakhi, reflecting weaker demand for lower-calorific material.

Rising port inventories weigh on fresh buying sentiment

India's non-coking coal inventories at major ports rose significantly during Week 16 (12-18 April 2026), increasing by 7.24% w-o-w to about 14.3 million tonnes. The inventory build-up was driven by higher cargo arrivals at key ports such as Dhamra, Gangavaram, and Tuna, along with proactive stocking by industrial consumers. Elevated stock levels at ports have reduced the urgency for fresh imports, particularly for lower-grade coal, thereby exerting downward pressure on prices in that segment.

Thermal power plant stocks remain comfortable but uneven

Coal inventories at Indian thermal power plants witnessed a marginal decline during the week but remained broadly adequate at around 56.2 million tonnes, equivalent to nearly 18 days of consumption as of 22 April. However, stock distribution continues to be uneven, with around 18 plants operating under critical levels. This includes plants dependent on domestic coal, imported coal, and washery rejects, indicating localized supply constraints despite an overall comfortable supply scenario.

Global cues mixed; Freight costs add mild support

International coal benchmarks showed mixed trends. Indonesian coal prices witnessed marginal support due to improved Asian demand and tighter supply dynamics. While 5,800 GAR and 4,200 GAR prices remained largely stable, lower-grade 3,400 GAR prices increased slightly by $0.2-0.5/t.

On the logistics front, freight rates edged higher, with Supramax rates from East Kalimantan to Navlakhi rising by about $1.1/t w-o-w to approximately $21/t, offering mild cost-push support to landed prices.

Outlook

The Indian portside thermal coal market is expected to remain split, with higher GAR prices supported by firm industrial demand and tight supply, while lower GAR prices stay under pressure due to ample inventories and weak offtake. Comfortable power plant stocks and rising port inventories will cap sharp price gains, though global prices, freight rates, and Indonesian supply dynamics will continue to influence the market.