India: PELLEX rises INR 150/t ($2/t); all eyes on NMDC's iron ore price revision

• Raipur pellet offers rise by INR 200/t
  
  
• Sponge PDRI, billet prices soften d-o-d
  
  

Pellet prices in the Raipur region remained firm over the past few days, with a rise in offers, supported by earlier gains in sponge PDRI and semi-finished steel tags. However, trading activity was subdued, as buyers exhibited limited interest in fresh bookings. Market participants indicated that while buyers made inquiries, many suppliers had already closed their sales and were focused on dispatching previously concluded deals.

Price movements, trades

PELLEX, BigMint's bi-weekly domestic pellet (Fe63%) index for Raipur, inched up by INR 150/tonne (t) to INR 10,050/t ($116/t) DAP on 29 July 2025 compared to the previous assessment on 25 July.

Raipur-based pellet producers raised their offers by INR 200/t ($2.5/t), with Fe 63% (+/-0.5%) material at INR 9,900-10,000/t/t ($114-115/t) exw. A few pellet makers kept sales closed and are not active in the market so far.

Meanwhile, no confirmed deals were recorded by the local pellet suppliers in the last couple of days at the revised offers. A few deals were also concluded at old offers but are yet to be confirmed.

Pellet (Fe 62.5-63%) offers from Odisha for Raipur were heard at INR 9,500-10,200/t ($109-117/t) DAP.

Market scenario

A pellet producer stated, "Demand is not absent, but most of us have already sold enough material. We are now dispatching existing contracts. We recently hiked our offers by INR 200/t ($2.5/t), but no orders were accepted."

Furthermore, a few plants in the region were temporarily halted their pellet sales now they have opened offers. The recent weakening in sponge and billet prices in the last couple of days further dampened buyer sentiment, leading to a slump in overall trade volumes.

Another market participant noted, "We are waiting for the NMDC's price revision for August, which is expected in the next couple of days. That will give the market more direction. The hike in pellet prices today was mainly due to a shortage of iron ore fines in the market. We may also see limited availability of pellets in the coming days if heavy rainfall continues."

From the eastern region, pellet deals from Odisha also remained limited, with only a few concluded by Raipur-based buyers. "There's a wait-and-watch mode in the market currently. Buyers want clarity before entering into new deals," said another trader.

Market participants believe that the upcoming NMDC iron ore price revision will play a crucial role in setting the tone for August trade. Clarity is expected to emerge post-announcement, and a new buying strategy will be developed in the market next week.

Rationale

• PELLEX has been derived using data points, i.e., trades, offers, and bids. To download the detailed methodology, click here.
  
  
• No deals were reported in this publishing window, and were not taken for calculation. Thus, the T1 trade category was accorded 0% weightage.
  
  
• Twenty (20) firm offers, bids, and indicative prices were heard. Thirteen (13) were taken for price calculation and given a balance of 100% weightage.
  
  

Key market drivers

• Sponge iron tags rise w-o-w: P-DRI prices rose by INR 1,000/t ($11.5/t) w-o-w to INR 24,900/t ($286/t) exw-Raipur on 29 July. Meanwhile, prices fell by INR 200/t ($2.5/t) d-o-d today. The market reflected a largely range-bound trend amid subdued buying interest and continued cautious sentiment across key regions.
  
  
• Billet prices climb up w-o-w: Billet prices in Raipur increased by INR 800/t ($9/t) w-o-w to INR 37,500/t ($431/t) exw today while dropping INR 300/t ($3.5/t) d-o-d. Market activity remained muted, with limited buyer participation and lower inquiry volumes. Prevailing pessimism, largely driven by weak downstream demand, weighed on overall momentum and kept spot prices under pressure.
  
  

Outlook

Pellet prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term due toNMDC's upcomingiron ore price revision. As per BigMint's analysis, prices are likely to stay strong as pellet producers are experiencing a shortage of iron ore fines due to the ongoing monsoon, which has also disrupted rake movement in the central and eastern regions.