India: Landed costs of imported HRC from China, Japan higher than domestic prices after safeguard duty

• Japanese HRC marginally costlier
  
  
• Chinese HRC prices higher due to BCD
  
  

Indias imported hot-rolled coil (HRC) offers from China stood at around $525/t CFR India, while those from Japan stood at $510/t CFR India as on 12 August 2025.

Furthermore, 12% safeguard is added on imports of specific non-alloy and alloy steel flat products. The additional duty is added if the prices are below threshold price. Moreover, for HRC imports, this threshold is set at $675/t CIF.

Domestic HRC prices

BigMint's benchmark assessment (bi-weekly) for HRC (IS2062, Gr E250, 2.5-8 mm/CTL) dropped by INR 200/t ($2/t) w-o-w to INR 50,000/t ($570/t) on 12 August 2025. These prices are ex-Mumbai for the distributor-to-dealer segment and exclude 18% GST.

The steel market demand remains steady with need-based buying activity. According to market participants, the ongoing festive period has temporarily curbed trading momentum. Traders anticipate more defined demand signals to surface in the first week of September, as activity picks up once festivities conclude.

Price gap analysis

The import price scenario for HRC into India from China and Japan involves several cost components. The base prices are $525/t CFR for China and $510/t CFR for Japan. For Chinese imports, a 7.5% Basic Customs Duty (BCD) and a 0.75% cess (10% of BCD) are applied, taking the effective cost to $569/t, while Japanese imports attract no BCD under FTA, so the cost remains $510/t. (table below for reference)

At a conversion rate of INR 87/USD, these values translate to INR 49,734 /t for China and INR 44,608/t for Japan. However, as both these figures are below the threshold import price of $675/t, a safeguard duty of 12% and an additional cess of 1.2% (10% of safeguard duty) are levied, amounting to an additional duty of $75/t for China and $67/t for Japan (i.e., 13.2% of the respective import value).

This brings the post-duty cost to $644/t for China and $577/t for Japan, or INR 56,294 and INR 50,469 respectively. Adding INR 2,000/t for port handling and miscellaneous charges, the final landed cost comes to INR 58,294/t for Chinese HRC and INR 52,469/t for Japanese HRC.

When compared with the domestic HRC price of INR 50,000 /t (ex-Mumbai, excluding GST), Japanese imports are marginally costlier, while Chinese imports are notably more expensive.

Bulk HRC imports

India's bulk hot-rolled coils (HRC) imports in July totalled 484,879 tonnes (t), a decline of 21% y-o-y from 611,778 t in July 2024, according to BigMint data. However, imports rose by 50% m-o-m against 322,329 t in June 2025.

In July, South Korea, China and Japan emerged as India's top three bulk HRC exporters, shipping 186,617 t, 125,891 t and 124,698 t, respectively. Interestingly, while imports from South Korean rose by 18% y-o-y, Japan shipments dropped by 37% over the same period.

Outlook

The Indian HRC market is likely to stay range-bound in the near term, with domestic prices retaining a competitive edge over imports after the safeguard duty, making overseas purchases less appealing. Moreover, trading activity could see a gradual pickup from early September as festive demand returns.