India: Iron ore fines export offers rise $2/t w-o-w amid strong demand

• Tight cargo availability supports higher offers
  
  
• Benchmark prices in China rise by $5/t w-o-w
  
  

Indian iron ore fines export prices inched up this week, driven by buoyant macroeconomic indicators from China and a sharp rally in international prices. Active seaborne trade was witnessed from the Indian coast as Chinese buying interest gained momentum, with several exporters managing to conclude deals for early-August shipments.

Prices, deals

BigMint's bi-weekly Indian low-grade iron ore fines (Fe 57%) export index rose by $1.5/t w-o-w to $66/t FOB east coast on 24 July.

Around 290,000 t of Fe 57% fines were sold at $76-80/t CFR China this week. Meanwhile, deals for 120,000 t of low-grade (Fe 54-55%) were concluded by exporters at $71-73/t CFR China.

This optimism is further reflected in the keeping of discounts firm for lower-grade ore. Fe 57% fines were offered with a 16-18% discount, while Fe 54% cargoes were traded at a 21-23% discount. Early-loading cargoes fetched a premium, signalling robust short-term demand.

Market scenario

Market participants attributed this uptrend to positive macroeconomic developments in China, which enhanced sentiment in the seaborne market.

Miners with single-mine cargoes scheduled for loading in the first week of August reportedly secured premiums, indicating tight availability and strong demand. A trader informed BigMint, Few miners received a premium of $3-5/t on their export cargoes this week, owing to urgent Chinese buying and limited availability."

However, exporters faced hurdles in mobilising material due to domestic supply tightness amid the ongoing monsoon. Weather-related disruptions have impacted mining and dispatch operations, restricting cargo build-up at ports. An exporter stated, "Despite demand, the monsoon and high domestic consumption are limiting availability. We are struggling to complete our lots for committed shipments."

Traders also pointed to strong demand for lower-grade iron ore, especially for blending cargos in international markets. A trader noted, "There is demand for Fe 57% material, and a few active deals were concluded in the market at 17-18% discounts."

The export rally was further bolstered by strength in the paper market, backed by optimism surrounding China's infrastructure stimulus, including a major dam project expected to boost steel consumption.

With solid buying interest and price support, sources observed that the Indian iron ore export market is expected to remain bullish in the near term.

Chinese spot prices rise w-o-w: Benchmark iron ore fines prices in China increased by $5/t w-o-w at $104/t CFR on 23 July. Macroeconomic indicators strengthened following China's plan for a hydropower project in Tibet, which is expected to boost the steel sector, although the spot property market remains lukewarm.

DCE iron ore futures climb up w-o-w: Iron ore futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) for the September 2025 contract rose by RMB 26/t ($4/t) w-o-w to RMB 811/t ($112/t) on 24 July.

Rationale

• Four (4) deals for Fe 57% were recorded during this publishing window, and three (3) were taken for price calculation. Therefore, T1 trade was given 50% weightage in the index calculation. For the detailed methodology, click here.
  
  
• BigMint received seventeen (17) indicative prices in the current publishing window, and twelve (12) were considered for price calculation as T2 inputs and given 50% weightage.
  
  

Iron ore inventory at Chinese ports remained largely stable w-o-w at 131 mnt on 24 July, as per SteelHome data.

Outlook

As per BigMint's analysis, Indian export prices will remain bullish in the near term amid strong demand. Deals under negotiation are expected to conclude in a couple of trading sessions.