India: Iron ore fines export index drops $2/t w-o-w on weak demand signals

• Around 22-24% discount for the Fe57% fines cargoes
  
  
• Exporters opt to wait-and-watch amid weak demand
  
  

Iron ore fines prices in the export market remained under pressure this week, as assessed on 15 January 2026, amid widening discounts and muted demand from overseas buyers.

Prices, deals

BigMint's bi-weekly Indian low-grade iron ore fines (Fe 57%) export prices decreased by $2/tonne (t) w-o-w to $67/t FOB east coast on Thursday. Meanwhile, the index stood at $77/t CFR China.

A few lower-grade cargoes were heard concluded this week, but deals are yet to be confirmed by the parties concerned. BigMint recorded around 80,000 t of iron ore export deals in this publishing window.

According to sources, the export discount for Fe 57% fines widened to around 22-24%, while discounts for Fe 55% material increased to nearly 25-26% against the global fines index.

Market scenario

Trade sentiments in the export market remain weak as inquiries for Indian-origin material were largely absent. Pre-Chinese holiday demand from mills remained subdued, as most buyers have already secured sufficient volumes from other origins, keeping Indian cargoes out of immediate focus.

A market participant said that a few miners concluded bulk shipments over the last two to three weeks, mainly involving single-mine cargoes. As a result, traders offering blended material faced limited buyer interest. The source added, "Buyers are currently focusing on single-mine cargoes, while blended material is not being actively targeted."

In terms of pricing, international traders indicated that Fe 57% fines were being bid at discounts of around 23-24% to the global benchmark index. However, sellers remained cautious at these levels and refrained from concluding deals, citing viability concerns. Another international trader noted, "Current discount levels are not workable for many sellers, especially considering higher domestic sourcing costs."

An Odisha-based miner stated that domestic lower-grade iron ore prices are offering better realisations compared to exports, and they are only selling in the domestic market due to strong demand from local buyers.

Exporters further noted that demand for February laycan cargoes remained weak, prompting several suppliers to adopt a wait-and-watch approach. High domestic iron ore prices continued to limit export competitiveness.

Chinese spot prices down w-o-w: The benchmark iron ore fines index (Fe 61%) recorded at $108/t CFR China, fell $1/t w-o-w on 14 January. China's port-stock iron ore prices have declined, even though there are indications of increased trading activity as mills are more willing to engage in transactions. The healthy destocking rates for lump iron ore at eastern China ports are expected to support improved demand. However, it remains uncertain whether this trend will continue after the Lunar New Year.

DCE iron ore futures stable w-o-w: Iron ore futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) for the May 2026 contract closed at RMB 813/t ($116/t) on 15 January 2026, and remained stable w-o-w.

Rationale

• No deal for Fe 57% was recorded during this publishing window; not taken for price calculation. Therefore, T1 trade was given 0% weightage in the index calculation. A few deals were already factored into Monday's assessment. For the detailed methodology, click here.
  
  
• BigMint received fourteen (14) indicative prices in the current publishing window, and nine (9) were considered for price calculation as T2 inputs and given 100% weightage.
  
  

Outlook

Indian seaborne iron ore fines prices are expected to remain volatile and under pressure in the near term, as subdued demand from China and limited buying interest are likely to impede any recovery.