India: Indonesian portside thermal coal prices steady w-o-w amid bearish market trends

• Buyers cautious, do need-based purchases
  
  
• Indonesian indexed prices see decline w-o-w
  
  

Indonesian thermal coal prices at Indian ports remained under pressure this week, as market conditions continued to be influenced by persistently weak demand, improved domestic coal availability, and increased vessel arrivals.

The overall sentiment in the portside market remained bearish, with minimal procurement activity and cautious buying behaviour observed among end-users.

Price stability amid limited market activity

According to BigMint's market assessment dated 30 May 2025, prices of Indonesian 5000 GAR thermal coal at Kandla Port remained unchanged at INR 7,750/tonne. The 4200 GAR grade also recorded price stability, holding at INR 6,100/tonne at Kandla and INR 6,000/tonne at Vizag. Meanwhile, the 3400 GAR was assessed steady at INR 4,500/tonne at Navlakhi Port.

The absence of significant transactional volume highlights a market driven primarily by short-term and sector-specific demand. Buyers continued to exercise caution amid macro-economic uncertainties and volatile fuel needs, which, in turn, limited upward price movements.

Thermal coal stocks at power plants up w-o-w

Stock levels at power plants increased marginally, rising from 57 mnt to 60 mnt as of 30 May. Current inventories are sufficient to meet about 20 days of consumption under standard operating conditions. However, several facilities continue to report critically low coal levels. This includes seven plants dependent on domestic coal, seven reliant on imported supplies, and two utilising washery rejects- indicating localised supply constraints despite overall adequate stock levels.

In contrast, coal inventories at Indian ports registered a slight w-o-w increase of approximately 2% to 15 mnt in Week 21 of 2025. The increase is attributed to a rise in vessel arrivals, contributing to portside stock accumulation even as offtake remains muted.

Indonesian index prices weaken amid slack demand

Indonesian coal prices posted largely negative movements across key calorific grades this week, as global demand remained tepid and buyers exercised caution due to budgetary constraints.

The 5800 GAR fell by $1.26/t to $75.96/t, reflecting softer demand for higher-calorific-value material -- likely influenced by tighter import quotas and sluggish downstream activity. The 4200 GAR saw an equal drop of $1.26/t, closing at $46.20/t, while the lower-grade 3400 GAR declined by $0.75/t to $32.66/t.

These adjustments suggest a continued preference among international buyers for lower-cost coal amid economic headwinds and a gradual shift in energy procurement strategies

Outlook

The near-term outlook on Indonesian thermal coal in the Indian market remains subdued. With demand likely to stay constrained in the absence of a seasonal or industrial resurgence, coal prices are expected to remain range-bound or under pressure. Market participants are closely monitoring domestic production trends, logistics movements, and stock levels at critical power facilities to assess the potential for market recalibration.