India: IF-route rebar prices surge m-o-m in Jan'26 on cost support, seasonal demand pick-up

• Inventories at mills remain comfortable at 8-10 days in Jan
  
  
• BF rebar prices jump on rising feedstock costs, supply crunch
  
  

IF-route rebar prices increased by INR 800-3,200/t m-o-m across regions in January 2026, as per BigMint's assessment. However, periodic corrections were noted during the month as the market exhibited resistance at elevated prices. Buying activity remained moderate to strong, supported by steady enquiries and routine procurement, which helped sustain market participation. As per sources, mills across most regions received bookings largely on a routine procurement basis, with limited advance coverage.

On the cost front, rising sponge iron and billet prices lifted rebar offers. Market activity was further supported by project-led procurement and improving retail offtake, aided by seasonal demand from construction and infrastructure activities, lending a positive undertone to market sentiment.

As per Joint Plant Committee (JPC) data, India's rebar production through the IF and BF routes stood at 39 million tonnes (mnt) in April-December of FY'26, marking a significant 9.2% rise from around 35.7 mnt in the same period of FY'25.

Region-wise price movements

Factors impacting market dynamics

Rising raw material prices support uptrend: The continued uptrend in finished steel prices was supported by higher raw material costs, as sponge iron and billet prices increased throughout the month, albeit with mild corrections. Steady buying interest and improved trade activity across key markets enabled manufacturers of sponge iron and billets to maintain prevailing rates and selectively push for higher prices, there by reinforcing a bullish market undertone.

Considering Raipur as the benchmark, billet prices rose by INR 1,500/t m-o-m to INR 40,650/t ex-works, while sponge iron (PDRI FeM 80% 1) increased by INR 1,850/t m-o-m to INR 25,700/t ex-works.

Supply remains stable: Mills across regions were operating at near-full capacity to meet prevailing demand conditions. Mill inventory positions are steady at nearly 8-10 days across key regions, largely unchanged from last month. This indicates a stable and well-balanced supply scenario, with no immediate signs of supply-side stress in the market.

Rebar demand improves: Trade activity improved, supported by steady enquiries and smooth dispatches. Seasonal improvement in construction activity, continued project-related offtake, and firm raw material prices supported rebar prices.

BF-rebar prices also surge: Trade-level BF rebar prices rose sharply by INR 6,700/t m-o-m to an average of INR 54,500/t exy-Mumbai amid strong domestic demand in January 2026.

Mills announced multiple price hikes during the month owing to rising raw material costs. In addition, the distribution channel faced material shortages across some sizes. Inventories declined by around 35-40% m-o-m in early-February, as per market sources.

In the projects segment, prices hovered around INR 57,000-58,000/t FOR Mumbai. Healthy order bookings supported market sentiment and prompted price hikes, with several mills also facing substantial order backlogs for the coming days.

Furthermore, BF rebar prices are likely to continue rising due to steady procurement ahead of the financial year closing.

Outlook

The rebar market is expected to stay constructive in the coming weeks, with prices likely to hold firm and show selective upside. Demand from infrastructure and ongoing projects should remain supportive, while cost-side pressures may continue to lend strength. With mills maintaining steady operations and supply remaining disciplined, any dips are likely to be short-lived. Overall sentiment is expected to stay upbeat, with price movements tracking raw material trends and market absorption levels.