India: HRC-rebar negative spread narrows sharply in Apr'26 as flat steel extends outperformance

• HRC-rebar spread narrows to -INR 1,200/t in Apr'26 from -INR 3,200/t in Mar'26
  
  
• HRC prices increase by INR 2,500/t m-o-m, outpacing rebar gains of INR 500/t
  
  
• Spread contracts for a second consecutive month from -INR 4,900/t in Feb'26
  
  

Morning Brief: The negative spread between domestic hot-rolled coil (HRC) and blast furnace (BF) rebar prices narrowed sharply to -INR 1,200/t in April 2026, compared with -INR 3,200/t in March, as per BigMint assessment. The contraction was driven by a stronger increase in HRC prices relative to rebar, extending the correction from the sharp widening seen in February.

The spread has now narrowed for a second consecutive month, following its widening to -INR 4,900/t in February, indicating a sustained reversal in relative pricing between the flat and long steel segments.

Domestic HRC prices increased by INR 2,500/t m-o-m in April, rising from INR 56,600/t in March to INR 59,100/t. This marks a continuation of the stronger price movement seen in March, with flat steel prices gaining relative strength.

The pace of increase in HRC prices has exceeded that of rebar for two consecutive months, indicating a shift in near-term pricing momentum toward the flat steel segment following a period of relative underperformance.

BF rebar prices increased by INR 500/t m-o-m, rising from INR 59,800/t in March to INR 60,300/t in April. The slower pace of increase suggests that long steel prices, which had earlier driven the widening of the spread, are now stabilising relative to HRC.

Spread narrows further as HRC rises faster than rebar

The sharper increase in HRC prices compared with rebar has driven a sustained contraction in the spread over the past two months. The move from -INR 4,900/t in February to -INR 1,200/t in April highlights a rapid realignment in segmental pricing.

This indicates that the earlier divergence, where rebar had significantly outpaced HRC, is now being corrected through stronger relative gains in the flat steel segment.

Outlook

Near-term price movement is likely to remain influenced by the ongoing USIran conflict, which has tightened global energy markets and disrupted key shipping routes such as the Strait of Hormuz, leading to elevated freight and input cost pressures.

These conditions tend to support steel prices, particularly in the flat segment, which is more exposed to global trade flows and cost transmission. At the same time, geopolitical uncertainty has begun to weigh on global demand expectations, with growth in steel consumption projected to slow amid the conflict.

As a result, the HRC-rebar spread is likely to remain sensitive to external cost pressures and trade dynamics, with continued strength in HRC prices relative to rebar expected to keep the spread compressed in the near term.