India: Cotton acreage may rise 15%, but structural challenges continue to weigh on sector outlook
...
- Higher cotton prices and MSP support encourage acreage expansion
- North India's cotton area continues to shrink amid recurring losses
India's cotton acreage is expected to increase by 10-15% in the 2026-27 kharif season as stronger market prices and higher minimum support prices (MSPs) improve farmer returns and encourage a shift from competing crops such as soybean. Cotton prices have largely remained above the 2025-26 MSP of Rs 7,710/quintal for medium staple and Rs 8,110/quintal for long staple varieties, both up Rs 589/quintal from the previous season, strengthening planting incentives across key producing states including Maharashtra, Gujarat and Telangana.
However, the expected recovery in acreage masks a deeper structural challenge. Cotton cultivation in North India continues to contract, with acreage across Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan declining from nearly 17 lakh hectares a decade ago to around 11 lakh hectares. Haryana's cotton area has fallen sharply from about 8 lakh hectares in 2019-20 to just 2.82 lakh hectares in 2025-26, reflecting the impact of pink bollworm infestations, erratic weather and weak farm profitability.
The sector's productivity challenge remains equally significant. India's average cotton yield stood at around 440 kg/hectare in 2024-25, almost half the global average of 856 kg/hectare. While the country contributes nearly 20% of global cotton production, lower yields continue to limit output growth and competitiveness. Industry participants note that acreage gains alone may not be sufficient to strengthen domestic supply if productivity remains stagnant.
Outlook
Higher prices and improved MSP support are expected to drive cotton sowing in central and western India during 2026-27. However, sustained growth in production will depend on addressing productivity gaps, strengthening pest management and reversing the continued decline of cotton cultivation in the northern cotton belt.
