India: Copper scrap prices stay range-bound w-o-w despite drop in futures

• Monsoon slows down Indian demand, keeps volumes low
  
  
• Copper hovers at $10,005/t on supply fears, US tariff risk
  
  

Indian copper scrap prices moved in a narrow range w-o-w, despite a drop in London Metal Exchange (LME) futures. Copper armature scrap was assessed at INR 819,000/tonne (t) ex-Delhi, down by INR 1,000/t w-o-w, while motors mix stood at $1,180/t, down by 1.66% w-o-w.

LME futures decreased by $55/t to $9,955/t compared with last week's $9,900/t. Meanwhile, copper stocks at LME-registered warehouses stood at 94,325 t, up by roughly 1,250 t compared to 93,075 t the previous week.

Copper prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) remained firm near multi-month highs, supported by persistent supply constraints and growing uncertainty over potential US import tariffs. As of early trade on 3 July, three-month copper held steady at $10,005/t , close to its highest level since late March.

Traders continue to redirect shipments toward the US to capitalise on a stronger price environment, anticipating possible tariff actions. This rush has sharply reduced available copper stocks in LME warehouses, which have fallen by 76% since mid-February despite a slight recovery in recent days.

Secondary continuously cast rods (CCRs) (99.90%) were assessed at INR 892,000/t ex-Delhi, remaining stable w-o-w. Meanwhile, primary CCR prices stood at INR 920,000/t, also stable w-o-w.

Domestic market scenario

Domestic copper market sentiment remains subdued as the monsoon season continues to dampen overall demand. While trading activity persists, it is largely limited to smaller volumes.

A key primary producer has reportedly initiated CCR rod production, though operations are still in the early stages.

Producers in northern India observed steady demand through Q1 and late Q2; however, seasonal disruptions have led to a slowdown in Q3. Additionally, delayed cash flows have prompted many market participants to adopt a cautious, wait-and-watch stance. Despite the overall moderation, high-grade copper continues to see healthy movement in select regions.

Imported market scenario

Firm demand in Pakistan has lifted copper motor scrap bids by around $80/t above prevailing Indian levels, where offers remain stagnant at approximately $1,150/t. This price gap has encouraged exporters to divert material towards Pakistan, where realisations are more attractive. The shift in trade flow has contributed to tightening availability in the Indian market, with limited inflows seen in recent weeks.

Meanwhile, higher-grade copper scrap such as Millberry continues to command strong premiums amid steady global demand. European-origin Millberry is being offered in the range of 99.5% to 100% of the 3M LME, while some recent trades have touched as high as 101% of LME, reflecting tight supply and strong buying interest.

Other European copper scrap grades are also firming up, with Candy Berry heard traded at 97.75%-98.75% of 3M LME and Birch Cliff ranging between 91%-93% of 3M LME, although activity remains selective due to cautious sentiment in key importing markets like India.

China market overview

Chinese copper cathode import premiums have strengthened, supported by an expanding price difference between major global exchanges.

Premiums for Grade A copper cathode, based on LME official cash prices, climbed to a range of $65-105/t CIF Shanghai as of 2 July, up from $50-90/t on 1 July and 26 June.

A notable transaction involved a batch of Japanese copper, which was sold at a premium of $105/t on 2 July.

The Comex-LME three-month copper price spread widened sharply, increasing from $1,293/t on 26 June to $1,513/t on 2 July. This divergence led trading firms to divert copper cathode shipments toward the US market.

Although Japanese copper is not Comex-registered, it can be used in place of Comex-listed brands for deliveries to downstream buyers. This enables traders to allocate more Comex-registered cathodes for storage in the US, where they command higher returns.

Outlook

The Indian copper scrap market is likely to remain range-bound in the near term, as subdued domestic demand during the monsoon and limited trading volumes offset the impact of firm overseas demand. Exporters may continue to divert material to higher-paying markets like Pakistan, further tightening local availability. While primary and secondary CCR prices are expected to stay stable, high-grade scrap such as Millberry could witness upward pressure amid strong global buying interest and constrained supply.