India: Billet export price indications drop further on low global demand

Indian BF-grade billets export prices tumbled on falling bids and sluggish global demand. The bid-offer disparities continued to keep trade activities limited.

Market sources opine that Indian mills are still looking for the price levels around $610-630/t FOB. However, there is a gap between bids and offers. The bids were heard within the range of $570-580/t, FOB.

Factors weighing on Indian billet exports-

• SE Asian imported billets offers down further : SteelMint's assessment of imported billets (150*150mm, 3SP) into the Philippines stood at around $665/t, CFR Manila, a further drop of $10/t on weak demand.
  
  
• Competitive export offers from Russia: Billet offers (150mm) from CIS are heard to be at around $600/t FOB levels this week, down by around $10/t. Low offers from CIS keep the global market conscious.
  
  
• Chinese SHFE rebar futures volatile: Chinese SHFE rebar futures witnessed a marginal increase this week. According to data maintained with SteelMint, China's SHFE rebar futures contract for October 2022 delivery was closed at RMB 4,541/t ($679/t) on 25 May 2022, a slight increase of RMB 9/t ($1/t). Meanwhile, on a d-o-d basis, prices rose sharply by RMB 73/t ($11/t).
  
  
  

Steel billets prices in China's Tangshan remained stable at RMB 4,470/t ($668/t) on 25 May 2022, inclusive of 13% VAT. However, prices fell by RMB 50/t ($7/t), w-o-w.

Outlook

Exports of semi-finished products like billets and slabs are likely to increase in the near term, SteelMint’s estimates. This is because the government has left this segment untouched in its recent announcement, slapping an export tax on iron ore and finished product categories. SteelMint estimates that India's billet export volume may climb to 8-10 mnt per annum from 6 mnt at present if Russia and Ukraine remain out of the market.