India: BigMint's pellet export index remains largely stable after CNY holidays

• Trading remains muted as buyers stay away from market
  
  
• Domestic realisations more attractive than exports
  
  

Indian pellet export prices remained rangebound following the Chinese New Year holidays, as buying interest continued to remain subdued. Market participants reported minimal inquiries this week, with no fresh deals concluded.

Price and trades update

BigMint's India pellet (Fe 63%, 3-3.5% Al) export index inched up by $0.5/tonne (t) w-o-w to $95.5/t FOB east coast on 25 February. No pellet export deals were recorded recently for exports, as major market participants were away during the Chinese New Year holidays.

A pellet export (Fe 65%) tender of 50,000 t was scheduled last week by an Indian pellet producer which failed to attract bids from buyers and was not sold.

The absence of active buyers during the holiday period and weak sentiment, coupled with elevated iron ore inventories at Chinese ports, kept trading under pressure.

Market updates

According to exporters, trading momentum is yet to fully recover as Chinese buyers are gradually returning to the market. A pellet exporter informed, "Inquiries are slowly coming back, but actual bookings are still missing. Buyers are cautious and waiting for clearer price direction."

Participants highlighted that the prices currently floating in the seaborne market are not viable for Indian pellet exporters. Domestic realisations remain comparatively stronger against exports amid weak sentiments and lower bids.

A pellet producer commented, "At current export bid levels, margins are under strain. Domestic sales are offering better netbacks. So producers are prioritising local dispatches."

The market is also witnessing a widening bid-offer gap. While international buyers are placing lower bids due to weak steel margins and high port stocks in China, sellers are holding firm at higher offer levels to protect realisations. This disparity has further restricted deal closures.

An international trader said, "There is a clear mismatch between buyer expectations and seller offers. Until this gap narrows, trade activity will remain limited."

As per sources, pellet export prices are expected to remain rangebound in the near term. A meaningful recovery is likely only after fresh transactions are concluded, and inventory pressure at Chinese ports eases, restoring confidence and liquidity in the seaborne pellet market.

Domestic vs export market

Domestic prices exceeded export realisations by around INR 1,600/t ($19/t), with the gap slightly narrowing w-o-w. Pellet (Fe 62.5%) prices in Odisha's Barbil were recorded at INR 8,550/t ($95/t) exw, down INR 100/t w-o-w. Meanwhile, the ex-plant realisation in exports from Barbil dropped w-o-w to INR 6,950/t ($76/t) exw.

Rational

• No confirmed deal from India's east coast was recorded in this publishing window for T1 trade and was allotted 0% weightage for today's price calculations. Click here for the detailed methodology.
  
  
• Ten (10) indicative prices were received, and seven (7) were considered for the calculation of the index and given a balance 100% weightage.
  
  

Factors impacting pellet exports

Chinese iron ore fines prices stable w-o-w: The benchmark iron ore fines Fe 61% index edged down by $1/dmt w-o-w to $98/dmt CFR China on 24 February. Prices were rangebound as market activity picked up after the holidays, especially in the primary market. Supply was slightly tight, making cargoes more competitive. However, mills remained cautious and showed limited interest in buying spot cargoes, while traders preferred to hold onto material, waiting for better market opportunities.

DCE iron ore futures price: Iron ore futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) for the May 2026 contract closed at RMB 748.5/t ($107/t) on 25 February.

Outlook

The pellet export market is expected to remain subdued due to the ongoing disparity between bids and offers and the significant price gap between domestic and export markets. Deals are likely to stay limited as international prices are under pressure, with the fines index hovering below $100/t CNF China.